The precious Yellow metal declined to 6-wk low at 1478.3 before finishing at 1482.6. Thanks to the steady movement in the remainder of the week, the benchmark contract slipped -1.21%, thus, avoiding an abrupt weekly loss.
Silver followed Gold falling to as low as 33.47 before finishing at 33.71 Friday. Due to weaker fundamentals and its volatile nature, the precious White metal declined 2.73% on the week.
Crude Oil prices dove early in the week after the IEA announced to release 60 mmb of strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) in 30 days. But, the impact faded as sentiment improved during the week, and as the agency details came into the Light.
The US Fed’s US$600B+ bond-buying program (QE-2) officially ended on June 30 with a whimper, and there are debates on whether the Fed should introduce something called QE-3, which Shayne and I believe is already in place awaiting announcement from Jackson Hole later this Summer, as the US economy has shown signs of slowdown.
If the US Fed announced a new QE immediately it would be too soon for it to implement further easing measures as the impact of QE-2 is not yet fully calibrated in the numbers. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said that ‘a little bit of time’ is needed to ’see what happens would be useful ‘before deciding the next step.
The report unveiled that only 39M bbls, 63%, of Crude Oil out of the total emergency release will be sold from government-controlled inventories, suggesting the impact of the IEA’s move on Crude Oil prices should be very much less than anticipated.
n January 1991, the IEA activated its Contingency Plan to make available to the market 2.5M BPD of Crude Oil, comprising of 2M BPD of stock-draw, 0.2M BPD of demand restraint and 0.2M BPD of fuel switching and surge production.
The Overall Technicals Comex Gold, silver, crude oil futures prices
Comex Gold (GC)
Gold’s decline from 1559.3 extended to 1478.3 last week after brief recovery.
The initial bias remains to the Southside this week, and further decline should be seen. The fall from 1559.3 is treated as the 3rd leg of the consolidation pattern from 1577.4 and should extend to 1462.5, Key support, and below.
That said, I am looking for Strong support at 1443/4: 50% retracement of 1309.1 to 1577.4 at 1443.3, 100% projection of 1577.4 to 1462.5 from 1559.3 at 1444.4, to contain any downside action and bring on a rebound.
On the Upside: a clear break of 1514.8, the Key resistance, is needed to signal reversal in here, baring that I will stay cautiously Bearish Gold.
The Big Picture: a short term Top was made at 1577.4 after Gold hits medium term rising channel resistance. But, there is no indication of long term trend reversal yet. Strong support from 1430/40 level, the 1432.5 resistance turned support, trend line at 1434, and a rebound will maintain the Bullish outlook and should eventually bring a up-trend resumption through 1600, the psych mark, after consolidations.
Note: sustained trading below the 1400 mark will raise the possibility of a trend reversal, and will turn the focus back to the 1309.1 support mark for confirmation.
The Long Term Picture: the rise from 681 is treated as resumption of the long term up-trend from the Y 1999 low of 253. 100% projection of 253 to 1033.9 from 681 at 1462 was met, but there is no sign of reversal yet. Sustained trading above 1462.6 may show the way towards 161.8% projection at 1945.6 in the longer term. But, a clear break of the 1309.1 support mark indicates that a medium term Top is formed and correction form 1577.4 would then likely head back to 55 months EMA, now standing at 1066.7. Stay tuned…
Comex Silver (SI)
Silver’s decline from 38.845 extended further to 33.38 last week, so I will stay Bearish as long as the 35.16 resistance mark holds.
I expect a further fall to 32.30, and break there confirms the resumption of the decline from 49.82 to 30, the next psych mark. But a clear break above 35.16 says that the fall from 38.845 has likely completed, and will turn bias back to the Northside for this resistance and possibly higher.
The Big Picture: the steep sell off from 49.82 shows that a medium term Top formed there, ahead of the 50 psych mark. Silver should now be correcting the 5 wave sequence from 14.65; 19.845, 17.735, 31.275, 26.30, 49.82. The correction will likely extend into 26.30/31.275, the cluster support Zone before completion. But, I still anticipate 1 more rising wave before Silver completes the 5 wave up-trend from 8.4 the Y 2008 low to then rise and finally makes an important Top.
The Long Term Picture: the deep sell off from 49.82 raises the possibility that long term up-trend from 4.01 is near completion as it faced Strong resistance from 261.8% projection of 4.01 to 21.44 from 8.4 at 54.032. But, it is too early to confirm a long term reversal yet; a important top should be near, if not at 49.82 I believe. On confirmation of such a reversal, Silver will likely fall towards its 55 months EMA now at 20.45. Stay tuned…
Nymex Crude Oil (CL)
Crude Oil drew Strong support a 90, the psych mark, last week and bounced. A short term Bottom is in place at 89.61 IMO, and further recovery is favored this week. But, there is no confirmation of completion of fall from 114.83 as long as 102.44 resistance holds, and the decline is still in favor to resume after finishing current recovery. A clear break below 92.66, the minor support, turns the bias back to the Southside 1st IMO. A clear break of 89.61 then targets the Key cluster support Zone at 83.65/85.
The Big Picture: the medium term rebound from 33.2 is treated as the 2nd leg of consolidation pattern from 147.24. The break of 96.22 support serves as the 1st alert of medium term reversal after Crude Oil failed 100% projection of 33.2 to 83.95 from 64.23 at 114.98. The focus is on next cluster support Zone at 83.85, 61.8% retracement of 64.23 to 114.83 at 83.65, 38.2% retracement of 33.2 to 114.83 at 84.10. A clear break and sustained trade there confirms the case of a medium term reversal, and turn the outlook Bearish for test of the 64.23 support mark, and below. But, a Strong rebound above this cluster support Zone retains my medium term Bullish POV, and bring another rise to above 115 level before reversal I believe.
The Long Term Picture: Crude Oil is in a long term consolidation pattern from 147.27, with 1st wave completed at 33.2, 2nd wave from there unfolding. A clear break of 83.85, Key support, confirms that the 2nd wave is finished, and the 3rd wave, a downward wave, should have started targeting a retest of the 33.2 low mark. Stay tuned… For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today
No comments:
Post a Comment