Analysis gold prices next week November 5-9 2012, gold prices ahead us election next week november 5-9 2012 : Gold slid to an eight-week low on Friday as the dollar jumped after data showing higher-than-expected US job creation, the last major signal on the state of the world's largest economy before elections next Tuesday. The payrolls data showed employers added 171,000 jobs in October versus forecasts of 125,000, while the jobless rate met expectations at 7.9 percent.The dollar, having already hit a seven-week high in the run up to the data, also climbed against the euro, with the euro buying $1.2857. Spot gold was at $1,695.65 at 1325 GMT, down 1.42 percent, having touched an eight-week low of $1,692.19 after the data. US gold futures for December fell $20.00 an ounce to $1,695.50.
Ahead of the US election the market will be nervous and undecided, so we should have volatile trading until Wednesday morning, In the longer term, a positive reading on jobs could weigh on gold if it trims expectations for monetary easing. The US authorities have explicitly tied the extent of monetary stimulus measures - news of which sent gold above $1,795 an ounce in October - to the health of the jobs market.
Gold rose 7.6 percent to $1,681.97 an ounce in London this year, heading for a 12th straight annual gain, the longest winning streak in at least nine decades. The Standard & Poor’s GSCI gauge of 24 commodities lost 2.5 percent since the end of December, and the MSCI All-Country World Index of equities climbed 11 percent. Treasuries returned 1.9 percent, a Bank of America Corp. index shows.
Bullion slid as much as 2 percent to a two-month low today as a Labor Department report that showed American employers added more workers than economists had forecast in October bolstered the dollar.
The BOJ said its fund will increase to 66 trillion yen, a separate credit loan program will stay at 25 trillion yen and it will also offer unlimited loans to banks to boost credit demand. The Fed said Oct. 24 it will maintain $40 billion in monthly purchases of mortgage debt and probably hold interest rates near zero until mid-2015. The European Central Bank has said it is ready to buy bonds of indebted nations and China approved a $158 billion subways-to-roads construction plan.
Bullion slid as much as 2 percent to a two-month low today as a Labor Department report that showed American employers added more workers than economists had forecast in October bolstered the dollar.
The BOJ said its fund will increase to 66 trillion yen, a separate credit loan program will stay at 25 trillion yen and it will also offer unlimited loans to banks to boost credit demand. The Fed said Oct. 24 it will maintain $40 billion in monthly purchases of mortgage debt and probably hold interest rates near zero until mid-2015. The European Central Bank has said it is ready to buy bonds of indebted nations and China approved a $158 billion subways-to-roads construction plan.
Inflation Outlook
Some investors buy bullion as a hedge against inflation and a weaker dollar, and the metal generally earns returns only through price gains, increasing its allure as interest rates decline. Inflation expectations measured by the break-even rate for five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities jumped 35 percent this year and reached a 16-month high in September.
ETP holdings jumped about 193 tons since the end of July and now account for almost a year of mine production, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Barclays Plc. Options traders are also bullish, with the 10 most widely held contracts giving the right to buy the metal at prices from $1,800 to $2,300 between November and March, data from Comex in New York show.
Hedge funds’ bets on a rally declined for two weeks after reaching the highest since August 2011 on Oct. 9, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Speculators cut their net- long position by 12 percent in the week ended Oct. 23 from the prior week, the most since July, to 161,987 futures and options, the data show.
Coin Sales
The U.S. Mint sold 59,000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins last month, 14 percent fewer than in September, data on its website show. This year’s sales of 543,500 are down 39 percent from the same period in 2011.
While prices slid for three consecutive weeks through Oct. 26, the longest losing streak in more than a year, this year’s average of $1,662 is set to be a record. A faster increase in prices compared with income growth will curb jewelry usage, Standard Bank Plc said in a report e-mailed on Oct. 30.
Demand in India, last year’s biggest buyer, slid the past several months as record local prices cut demand, according to Bachhraj Bamalwa, chairman of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation. Indian consumers usually boost purchases before the wedding season and religious festivals later in the year, and that should improve consumption, Bamalwa said.
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney face off in a Nov. 6 presidential election and an Obama victory would support gold because “market uncertainty” will be removed, Edel Tully, an analyst at UBS AG in London, wrote in an Oct. 31 report. An Obama win may be positive for bullion because investors see greater monetary accommodation and currency debasement from a Democratic administration, according to Ross Norman, the chief executive officer of London bullion brokerage Sharps Pixley Ltd.
Some investors buy bullion as a hedge against inflation and a weaker dollar, and the metal generally earns returns only through price gains, increasing its allure as interest rates decline. Inflation expectations measured by the break-even rate for five-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities jumped 35 percent this year and reached a 16-month high in September.
ETP holdings jumped about 193 tons since the end of July and now account for almost a year of mine production, according to data compiled by Bloomberg and Barclays Plc. Options traders are also bullish, with the 10 most widely held contracts giving the right to buy the metal at prices from $1,800 to $2,300 between November and March, data from Comex in New York show.
Hedge funds’ bets on a rally declined for two weeks after reaching the highest since August 2011 on Oct. 9, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data show. Speculators cut their net- long position by 12 percent in the week ended Oct. 23 from the prior week, the most since July, to 161,987 futures and options, the data show.
Coin Sales
The U.S. Mint sold 59,000 ounces of American Eagle gold coins last month, 14 percent fewer than in September, data on its website show. This year’s sales of 543,500 are down 39 percent from the same period in 2011.
While prices slid for three consecutive weeks through Oct. 26, the longest losing streak in more than a year, this year’s average of $1,662 is set to be a record. A faster increase in prices compared with income growth will curb jewelry usage, Standard Bank Plc said in a report e-mailed on Oct. 30.
Demand in India, last year’s biggest buyer, slid the past several months as record local prices cut demand, according to Bachhraj Bamalwa, chairman of the All India Gems & Jewellery Trade Federation. Indian consumers usually boost purchases before the wedding season and religious festivals later in the year, and that should improve consumption, Bamalwa said.
Barack Obama and Mitt Romney face off in a Nov. 6 presidential election and an Obama victory would support gold because “market uncertainty” will be removed, Edel Tully, an analyst at UBS AG in London, wrote in an Oct. 31 report. An Obama win may be positive for bullion because investors see greater monetary accommodation and currency debasement from a Democratic administration, according to Ross Norman, the chief executive officer of London bullion brokerage Sharps Pixley Ltd.
analysts surveyed gold prices next week November 5-9 2012
analysts surveyed by Bloomberg
Eighteen of 27 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week and five were bearish. A further four were neutral, making the proportion of bulls the highest since Aug. 24. Holdings in gold-backed exchange-traded products gained the past three months, the best run since August 2011, data compiled by Bloomberg show. They reached a record 2,588.4 metric tons yesterday, valued at $140 billion, the data show.
Gold traders are the most bullish in 10 weeks and investors are hoarding a record amount of bullion as central banks pledge to do more to spur economic growth.
analysts surveyed by Kitco News
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 23 responded this week. Of those 23 participants, nine see prices up, while 11 see prices down, and three are neutral or see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.
Participants who see higher prices said given the long-term fundamental backdrop of ultra-loose monetary policy, gold will be underpinned. Others cited seasonal tendencies for gold as the market has entered a new month which historically has favored higher prices.
Those who are bearish on prices cited the break under $1,700 an ounce on Friday after a stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report and general sluggishness in price activity. A stronger U.S. dollar index could also weigh on gold as the yellow metal can trade opposite the direction of the greenback since it is dollar-denominated.
Participants who see higher prices said given the long-term fundamental backdrop of ultra-loose monetary policy, gold will be underpinned. Others cited seasonal tendencies for gold as the market has entered a new month which historically has favored higher prices.
Those who are bearish on prices cited the break under $1,700 an ounce on Friday after a stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report and general sluggishness in price activity. A stronger U.S. dollar index could also weigh on gold as the yellow metal can trade opposite the direction of the greenback since it is dollar-denominated.
Currency markets continue to be the main influence for gold prices, so it should be no surprise that gold is at a seven-week low with the dollar index at a seven-week high. Better-than-expected economic data has put a bid in the dollar. Sell stops set below $1,700 are being hit and long liquidation continues, and today there is also margin liquidation pressure. Potential support levels are in the $1,660’s and the $1,620’s. This market looks lower,
A number of participants are being cautious going into next week and are neutral on prices or on the sidelines, especially ahead of Tuesday’s U.S. presidential election.
how will gold prices next week November 5-9 2012 ?
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