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Thursday, February 3, 2011

Tanzania coffee forecasts 2010 - 2011

Tanzania coffee forecasts 2010 - 2011 : In spite of the GOT’s new focus on domestically-eaten food-crops (rice and corn are good examples), increasing world coffee prices and improved meteorological conditions during the early part of the marketing year (MY) (July 2010/June 2011 (MY2011)) will likely mean an increased exportable coffee surplus for MY2011 (810,000 60 Kilo bags) with respect to MY2010 (580,000 60 Kilo bags).

Beyond the MY 2011 crop, the GOT’s Kilimo Kwanza focus on food crops may inadvertently help the Tanzanian coffee industry. To the extent that the GOT and its partners in agricultural development improve land tenure laws, infrastructure, irrigation availability, etc. coffee producers will likely also benefit through reduced variable costs and a more consistent production and delivery capability.

Local coffee prices and the prospects for future earnings, heavily influenced by world coffee market prices, will likely continue to drive investment in and the productivity of the Tanzanian coffee sector. In recent years, Tanzanian coffee producers and exporters have apparently positioned their operations to respond to upward-trending world coffee market prices, and appear to have set (the data is still an estimate) an all-time export record during MY 2009. The International Coffee Organization (ICO) composite price has been steadily climbing during calendar year 2007 and reached record levels during the first quarter of calendar year 2008 providing the impetus for Tanzanian coffee producers to maximize production from their currently planted trees.

Tanzania coffee forecasts, 2010-11 (year-on-year change)

Area planted: 230,000 hectares (unch)

Arabica production: 560,000 bags (+47%)

Robusta production: 340,000 bags (+62%)

Exports: 810,000 bags (+40%)

Domestic use: 85,000 bags (+3.7%)

Year-end stocks: 69,000 bags (+7.8%)
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