U.S. stock futures ahead of payrolls report 10/5/2012 : U.S. stock index futures were slightly higher in thin trading Friday, after four days of gains on the S&P 500, and ahead of a government payrolls report expected to show a tick up in hiring last month and a slight increase in the unemployment rate.
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Showing posts with label us economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label us economy. Show all posts
Friday, October 5, 2012
How will US jobless rate report october 5 2012
How will US jobless rate report october 5 2012, Unemployment rate September 2012, US NonFarm Payrolls report october 5 2012 : The jobless rate in the U.S. probably rose in September as employers limited hiring, keeping the labor market’s lack of progress at the center of Federal Reserve deliberations and the presidential election.
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Wednesday, September 26, 2012
US New Home Sales report september 26 2012
US New Home Sales report september 26 2012 : In the US, New Home Sales, Value the annualized number of new homes that were sold on the previous month; 381K is expected now from 372K on August.
Later in the US, Crude Oil Inventories, weekly report to measure the commercial crude oil barrels that are held in inventory, 8.5M is due similar to the last week. Sales of new homes likely rose again in August, further evidence of a sustained recovery in housing.
The expectation was that sales of new homes increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 380,000 in August, according to a survey by FactSet. The Commerce Department will release the report at 10 a.m. EDT.
In July, sales of new homes had increased 3.6 percent to an annual rate of 372,000, matching the May level. Both months were the highest since April 2010 when housing sales were being boosted by temporary government tax credits for home buyers.
In the 12 months through July, sales of new homes were up 25 percent. But even with the increases, new home sales remain well below the annual pace of 700,000 that economists consider healthy.
The house market is making a modest but steady recovery, helped by the Federal Reserve's efforts to give the economy a boost through lower interest rates. The Fed earlier this month announced a third round of bond buying in an effort to stimulate the economy and attack unemployment which has been stuck above 8 percent since early 2009.
Sales of previously occupied homes jumped in August to the highest level since May 2010. Builder confidence is at a six-year high and construction of single-family homes rose last month to the fastest annual rate in more than two years. However, even with the gains, home sales and construction remain well below healthy levels.
Home sales have been bolstered by the lowest mortgage rates on record. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage touched a record low of 3.49 percent last week. The rate has been below 4 percent all year. Some economists are forecasting that the Fed's new program to $40 billion a month in mortgage backed securities will push 30-year mortgages down close to 3 percent in coming months.
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Later in the US, Crude Oil Inventories, weekly report to measure the commercial crude oil barrels that are held in inventory, 8.5M is due similar to the last week. Sales of new homes likely rose again in August, further evidence of a sustained recovery in housing.
The expectation was that sales of new homes increased to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 380,000 in August, according to a survey by FactSet. The Commerce Department will release the report at 10 a.m. EDT.
In July, sales of new homes had increased 3.6 percent to an annual rate of 372,000, matching the May level. Both months were the highest since April 2010 when housing sales were being boosted by temporary government tax credits for home buyers.
In the 12 months through July, sales of new homes were up 25 percent. But even with the increases, new home sales remain well below the annual pace of 700,000 that economists consider healthy.
The house market is making a modest but steady recovery, helped by the Federal Reserve's efforts to give the economy a boost through lower interest rates. The Fed earlier this month announced a third round of bond buying in an effort to stimulate the economy and attack unemployment which has been stuck above 8 percent since early 2009.
Sales of previously occupied homes jumped in August to the highest level since May 2010. Builder confidence is at a six-year high and construction of single-family homes rose last month to the fastest annual rate in more than two years. However, even with the gains, home sales and construction remain well below healthy levels.
Home sales have been bolstered by the lowest mortgage rates on record. The average rate on the 30-year fixed mortgage touched a record low of 3.49 percent last week. The rate has been below 4 percent all year. Some economists are forecasting that the Fed's new program to $40 billion a month in mortgage backed securities will push 30-year mortgages down close to 3 percent in coming months.
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Friday, September 21, 2012
U.S. new home sales august 2012
U.S. new home sales august 2012, U.S. housing market, existing home sales august 2012,: The United States has recorded a modest increase in home sales at 7.8%--the highest achieved in more than two years amidst a sluggish construction industry.
Reports released by the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales reached 4.82 million in August, up from 4.47 million recorded in July. These numbers exceeded the expectation of 4.55 million units sold during the period based on a survey conducted by Reuters.
This positive activity resulted in the increase by 9% to $187,400 of current median prices compared to 2011.
“The housing market is steadily recovering with consistent increases in both home sales and median prices. More buyers are taking advantage of excellent housing affordability conditions,” said NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun in an issued statement.
The decision of the Federal Reserve to buy $40 billion in mortgage securities each month is seen to slash interest rates further and free up more liquidity in the market. The remaining obstacle for would-be home buyers is the lending standard for credit scores.
Distressed property sales, including foreclosures and short sales, account for 22% of August sales, lower by 2% compared to the previous month. Inventory moved up 2.9% to 2.47 million units ending August, a 6.1 month supply at the current pace of sales.
An estimated 80% of all new mortgages are refinancing of existing properties, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a separate statement.
This confirms the trend that some 15% to 20% of existing home purchases are made by investors, who have taken a liking of properties in the cities of New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles and South Florida.
New York-based developer Centurion Real Estate Partners principal John Tashjian told ibtimes.com that it may take two to three more years before home prices will scale up, but, nonetheless, the U.S. property sector is “on the right path to recovery.”
Mr. Tashjian further explained that the Fed’s move to keep benchmark rates low through 2015 boosted confidence in the U.S. housing market.
The changing landscape of the U.S. property sector had so far benefitted the listed home builders including the country’s largest luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL), ), Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) and PulteGroup Inc. (NYSE: PHM). Shares of said companies have surged by an average 2 to 5% in recent weeks.
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Reports released by the National Association of Realtors said existing home sales reached 4.82 million in August, up from 4.47 million recorded in July. These numbers exceeded the expectation of 4.55 million units sold during the period based on a survey conducted by Reuters.
This positive activity resulted in the increase by 9% to $187,400 of current median prices compared to 2011.
“The housing market is steadily recovering with consistent increases in both home sales and median prices. More buyers are taking advantage of excellent housing affordability conditions,” said NAR’s chief economist Lawrence Yun in an issued statement.
The decision of the Federal Reserve to buy $40 billion in mortgage securities each month is seen to slash interest rates further and free up more liquidity in the market. The remaining obstacle for would-be home buyers is the lending standard for credit scores.
Distressed property sales, including foreclosures and short sales, account for 22% of August sales, lower by 2% compared to the previous month. Inventory moved up 2.9% to 2.47 million units ending August, a 6.1 month supply at the current pace of sales.
An estimated 80% of all new mortgages are refinancing of existing properties, the Mortgage Bankers Association said in a separate statement.
This confirms the trend that some 15% to 20% of existing home purchases are made by investors, who have taken a liking of properties in the cities of New York, San Francisco, Los Angeles and South Florida.
New York-based developer Centurion Real Estate Partners principal John Tashjian told ibtimes.com that it may take two to three more years before home prices will scale up, but, nonetheless, the U.S. property sector is “on the right path to recovery.”
Mr. Tashjian further explained that the Fed’s move to keep benchmark rates low through 2015 boosted confidence in the U.S. housing market.
The changing landscape of the U.S. property sector had so far benefitted the listed home builders including the country’s largest luxury builder Toll Brothers Inc. (NYSE: TOL), ), Lennar Corp. (NYSE: LEN) and PulteGroup Inc. (NYSE: PHM). Shares of said companies have surged by an average 2 to 5% in recent weeks.
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Saturday, September 1, 2012
US. economic growth forecast 2013- 2014
US. economic growth forecast 2013- 2014, US, unemployment rate forecast 2013-2014, Industrial production : the U.S., second quarter real GDP growth was revised up to 1.7 per cent from 1.5 per cent. More positively, growth in real final sales was upped to 2.0 per cent from 1.2 per cent. The inventory cycle is less of a drag on future production than initially estimated. Industrial production rose 0.6 per cent in July boosted by a 3.3 per cent increase in motor vehicle and parts production but leaving a modest 0.2 per cent growth excluding autos.
However recent Fed manufacturing surveys point to weakness ahead. Recessions in various EZ countries will hurt exports and the most severe drought in decades will hurt agricultural and food production. July retail sales were positive rising more than expected, up 0.8 per cent in July. Some of this could be a payback for a weak June.
Our report suggests consumption is off to good start this quarter. This strength will not hold up in light of weaker consumer confidence in August and the distraction of the upcoming election and policy uncertainty.
U.S. housing remains on a modest recovery path. Existing-home sales and prices increased in July and remain well above year-ago levels. New housing construction is also recovering from its recession lows but remains at historically low levels, especially when adjusted for population. Housing’s modest recovery contributes to economic growth.
Personal income grew 0.3 per cent in July and was up 3.6 per cent from one year ago. Adjusted for inflation, personal income was up 2.3 per cent from last July. Real per capita personal income was up 1.6 per cent and it continues to recover at a modest pace from the recession mostly geared to improvements in the labour market and labour income. To reach its pre-recession level will take another 18 months or so.
In the next three to six months, leading economic indicators do not signal a recession. U.S. economic growth is forecast around 1.5 to 2.5 per cent in Q3 and Q4-2012. There is considerable concern about 2013 due to the automatic fiscal tightening of about 4 per cent of GDP. In theory, a recession could ensue if nothing is done but it is highly improbable that politicians would knowingly cause a recession. The likely outcome is some stopgap or modified policies will avoid the full negative hit to the economy.
Even the most pessimistic among the forecasters surveyed do not expect a recession next year. A few see quarterly growth slowing to an annual 1 per cent rate compared to the average or consensus forecast in the 2.0 to 3.0 per cent range. However, recession calls exist. For example, the ECRI maintains its recession call made in late September 2011.
For 2014, economic prospects improve with the ongoing pursuit of self-interests by consumers and businesses under stimulative monetary conditions, constant technological change, and higher growth in Europe and the emerging economies. The U.S. economy is expected to expand almost 3 per cent in 2014.
Fed unemployment rate forecast 2013-2014
Federal Reserve analysts projected that the unemployment rate could stay near 8 percent through 2014, as the committee downgraded the economic forecast for 2013 and 2014.
The Federal Open Market Committee said today that the unemployment rate will range between 6 and 8 percent for the next two years. They indicated that 7 percent is the most likely unemployment rate.
When asked why "the forecast for 2013 and 2014, the growth forecast, is downgraded," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said "I suspect that the fiscal issues may be part of that."
He maintained, however, that "the 2013 numbers are stronger than the 2012 numbers and the 2014 numbers are stronger than the 2013 numbers" despite that downgrade
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However recent Fed manufacturing surveys point to weakness ahead. Recessions in various EZ countries will hurt exports and the most severe drought in decades will hurt agricultural and food production. July retail sales were positive rising more than expected, up 0.8 per cent in July. Some of this could be a payback for a weak June.
Our report suggests consumption is off to good start this quarter. This strength will not hold up in light of weaker consumer confidence in August and the distraction of the upcoming election and policy uncertainty.
U.S. housing remains on a modest recovery path. Existing-home sales and prices increased in July and remain well above year-ago levels. New housing construction is also recovering from its recession lows but remains at historically low levels, especially when adjusted for population. Housing’s modest recovery contributes to economic growth.
Personal income grew 0.3 per cent in July and was up 3.6 per cent from one year ago. Adjusted for inflation, personal income was up 2.3 per cent from last July. Real per capita personal income was up 1.6 per cent and it continues to recover at a modest pace from the recession mostly geared to improvements in the labour market and labour income. To reach its pre-recession level will take another 18 months or so.
In the next three to six months, leading economic indicators do not signal a recession. U.S. economic growth is forecast around 1.5 to 2.5 per cent in Q3 and Q4-2012. There is considerable concern about 2013 due to the automatic fiscal tightening of about 4 per cent of GDP. In theory, a recession could ensue if nothing is done but it is highly improbable that politicians would knowingly cause a recession. The likely outcome is some stopgap or modified policies will avoid the full negative hit to the economy.
Even the most pessimistic among the forecasters surveyed do not expect a recession next year. A few see quarterly growth slowing to an annual 1 per cent rate compared to the average or consensus forecast in the 2.0 to 3.0 per cent range. However, recession calls exist. For example, the ECRI maintains its recession call made in late September 2011.
For 2014, economic prospects improve with the ongoing pursuit of self-interests by consumers and businesses under stimulative monetary conditions, constant technological change, and higher growth in Europe and the emerging economies. The U.S. economy is expected to expand almost 3 per cent in 2014.
Fed unemployment rate forecast 2013-2014
Federal Reserve analysts projected that the unemployment rate could stay near 8 percent through 2014, as the committee downgraded the economic forecast for 2013 and 2014.
The Federal Open Market Committee said today that the unemployment rate will range between 6 and 8 percent for the next two years. They indicated that 7 percent is the most likely unemployment rate.
When asked why "the forecast for 2013 and 2014, the growth forecast, is downgraded," Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said "I suspect that the fiscal issues may be part of that."
He maintained, however, that "the 2013 numbers are stronger than the 2012 numbers and the 2014 numbers are stronger than the 2013 numbers" despite that downgrade
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August US Nonfarm Payrolls outlook report 9/7/2012
August US Nonfarm Payrolls outlook report 9/7/2012, Nonfarm Payrolls forecast august 2012 : Friday brings the August nonfarm payrolls report. Bernanke’s Friday comment about the “stagnation of the labor market” makes the jobs report significant. The July data showed 163,000 new jobs were created and market participants will watch to see if that sort of growth is maintained. Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch call for August payrolls to have risen by 120,000 and the unemployment rate to tick down to 8.2%.
“If there is a big miss to the downside, the market will aggressively price in a large QE for the Sept. 13 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. If the data is better than expected, the market will slowly price out the QE3,
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“If there is a big miss to the downside, the market will aggressively price in a large QE for the Sept. 13 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. If the data is better than expected, the market will slowly price out the QE3,
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Wednesday, August 29, 2012
official figures US economic growth q2 2012
official figures US economic growth q2 2012 : The US economy grew more than first estimated in the second quarter, according to official figures. The US grew at an annualised pace of 1.7% from April to June, more than the 1.5% previously estimated, the Commerce Department said.
This is a slowdown from 2% in the first three months of the year. The US Congress's budget office last week warned that spending cuts and tax rises could trigger a sharp economic slowdown in 2013.
In its report, the CBO said it expected the US recovery "to continue at a modest pace" for the rest of 2012 but warned that "substantial changes to tax and spending policies" would cause the US to tip back into recession next year.
The 1.7% annualised pace in the second quarter is equivalent to 0.43% quarter-on-quarter growth. That compares with 0.38% quarterly growth in the previous estimate.
The unemployment rate is currently above 8%.
The economy is shaping up to be one of the biggest issues of this year's US presidential election, which sees President Barack Obama take on Republican rival Mitt Romney.
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke may offer further thoughts on the state of the economy when he gives a speech at the central bank's annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at the end of this week.
For the past two years, Mr Bernanke has used the event, a conference of the world's central bankers, to indicate the Fed's intentions.
The Fed has kept base interest rates at close to zero for nearly four years and pumped $2.3 trillion into the economy.
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This is a slowdown from 2% in the first three months of the year. The US Congress's budget office last week warned that spending cuts and tax rises could trigger a sharp economic slowdown in 2013.
In its report, the CBO said it expected the US recovery "to continue at a modest pace" for the rest of 2012 but warned that "substantial changes to tax and spending policies" would cause the US to tip back into recession next year.
The 1.7% annualised pace in the second quarter is equivalent to 0.43% quarter-on-quarter growth. That compares with 0.38% quarterly growth in the previous estimate.
The unemployment rate is currently above 8%.
The economy is shaping up to be one of the biggest issues of this year's US presidential election, which sees President Barack Obama take on Republican rival Mitt Romney.
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke may offer further thoughts on the state of the economy when he gives a speech at the central bank's annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, at the end of this week.
For the past two years, Mr Bernanke has used the event, a conference of the world's central bankers, to indicate the Fed's intentions.
The Fed has kept base interest rates at close to zero for nearly four years and pumped $2.3 trillion into the economy.
For the latest updates on the stock market, PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market Today For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today
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