Unemployment increased to 8.2 percent last month from 8.1 percent in August, according to the median projection of 88 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. Payrolls climbed by 115,000 workers, less than the 139,000 average over the first eight months of the year, the report may also show.
Joblessness that’s exceeded 8 percent for an unprecedented 43 months is restraining incomes and impeding consumers’ ability to support the economy as global demand and business investment wane. Today’s release marks the second-to-last jobs report before the November elections as President Barack Obama and Republican challenger Mitt Romney debate who’s best equipped to boost employment.
The Labor Department will issue the report at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. Payroll estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from gains of 60,000 to 165,000.
September’s projected increase suggests headcounts rose by an average of 117,000 each month in the third quarter, the second-weakest pace in two years.
Private payrolls, which exclude government jobs, probably climbed by 130,000 after rising 103,000 in August, economists anticipate the report will show.
Persistent Unemployment
The unemployment rate, derived from a survey of households, has topped 8 percent since February 2009, the longest stretch in monthly records dating back to 1948. The U.S. economy has so far recovered about 4.1 million of the 8.8 million jobs lost in the wake of the 18-month recession that ended in June 2009.
Only one president, Ronald Reagan, has been re-elected since World War II with unemployment above 6 percent. On Election Day 1984, the rate was at 7.2 percent, having fallen almost three percentage points in the previous 18 months.
To boost employment, Obama last September proposed the American Jobs Act, which would cut payroll taxes for workers and employers, provide aid to states and increase spending on public-works projects. Romney has vowed to create 12 million new jobs as part of a plan that includes developing the energy sector and reducing taxes. The two debated this week.
Bond Purchases
Warning that it can’t combat a slowdown in growth caused by stricter fiscal policy, the Fed last month said it would hold its target interest rate near zero until at least mid-2015 to stimulate more hiring. The central bank also began a third round of stimulus, buying $40 billion in mortgage bonds a month. The S&P 500 rose to 1,465.77 the next day, the highest close since December 2007.
The S&P 500 Index last week had its biggest weekly slump since June amid disappointing economic data, including a plunge in orders for durable goods and stalled consumer spending.
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