Monday, November 12, 2012

Maruti Suzuki India stock projections 2013 -2014

Maruti Suzuki India stock projections 2013 -2014MSIL eps 2013, MSIL shares prices 2013-2014 Increased focus on diesel version to lead future growth: India is a price sensitive market and the sudden upturn in the prices of petrol has soared up the sales volume of diesel variants small cars in the country. In the first half of the current fiscal, the auto makers of the country has seen the diesel to petrol ratio go up from 60:40 to 85:15.

Maruti Suzuki has cut its fiscal 2013 growth forecast from 10% to 5%. The revision means the Indian automaker will have to grow at around 10-11% in the second half of 2012.

Maruti Suzuki chairman RC Bhargava told CNBC-TV18 that the company is considering expanding its diesel capacity earlier than intended. The automaker may also boost output at its Gurgaon plant while it is considering a new engine plant in the state of Gujarat.

Maruti Suzuki India (MSIL)'s 2QFY2013 results were lower-than-expected on the bottom-line front on account of raw-material cost pressures (due to unfavorable forex impact on indirect imports and higher discounts) and higher employee expenditure (due to wage hikes and Manesar settlement). While, we expect MSIL to post a modest volumes growth of ~3% in FY2013, we expect volumes to rebound in FY2014E and post a growth of 13% driven by availability of additional diesel engines and revival in demand for petrol cars. We also expect operating margins to improve ~130bp in FY2014E led by a favorable product-mix, lower discounts and ongoing cost reduction initiatives taken by the company. Nonetheless, post the sharp run-up in the stock price (up ~25%) over the last three months; the stock appears to be fairly valued. Thus we maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

2QFY2013 results marred by labor strike and weak demand: For 2QFY2013, net sales grew by a healthy 8.2% yoy (down 22.9% qoq) to Rs.8,305cr which was 4.1% lower than our estimates, driven by an 18.9% yoy (down 1.6% qoq) increase in net average realization (on better product-mix). Volumes during the quarter witnessed a decline of 8.7% yoy (22.1% qoq) led by labor strike at the Manesar plant and reduced demand for petrol cars. The EBITDA margin declined 117bp qoq to 6.1% due to increase in raw-material and employee expenses. While raw-material expenses jumped 1 75bp qoq due to higher discounts and lagged impact of indirect imports; employee expense increased 60bp qoq due to wage hikes and one-time expense related to the Manesar plant. On the positive side, other expenditure declined 120bp qoq due to favorable currency movement which resulted in lower royalty, down 80bp qoq to 5.4%. The net profit declined 5.4% yoy (46.3% qoq) to Rs.227cr as higher depreciation and interest expense negated the positive impact of lower tax rate and higher other income.

Outlook and valuation: At Rs.1,395, MSIL is trading at 14.8x its FY2014E earnings. We maintain our Neutral rating on the stock.

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