Sunday, September 30, 2012

Nifty futures tips october 1-5 2012

Nifty futures tips october 1-5 2012, Nifty chart technical prediction october 1-5 2012 :  The Indian market will remain volatile in a truncated week as the investors may continue to book profits after a recent run up in share prices, Sharekhan said in a report.

Markets wrapped up the week ended September 28, 2012 in green for the fourth straight week with the BSE Sensex rising 0.05 per cent and the NSE Nifty up by 0.21 per cent. The BSE Mid-Cap index rose 2.72 per cent and the BSE Small Cap index rose 3.06 per cent. Both these indices outperformed the Sensex.

Volatility ruled the markets this week on account of global woes both in local and overseas indices. The markets registered gains in three out of the five trading sessions.

The stock market will remain closed on Tuesday (October 02, 2012) on account of Mahatma Gandhi Jayanti.

After a flat opening the Nifty drifted lower to breach the weekly support of 5,648 points, intraday, only to recover and close above it on the settlement day. The new settlement opened with an upside gap and the Nifty finally closed a meagre 12 points (+0.21%) in the green. Volumes were, however, significantly higher as the Nifty formed a “high wave line” (though not classical as the candle should preferably have been longer), implying that there is equilibrium at current levels between the bulls and bears. The histogram MACD, which is above the median level, moved higher indicating that the bulls remain in control even though the short-term oscillators have ventured into overbought territory.

The sectoral indices which outperformed were CNX Media (+6.47%), CNX FMCG (+4.13%), CNX Realty (+3.94%), CNX Consumption (+2.82%), CNX Pharma (+2.12%) and CNX Auto (+1.19%) while the underperformers were CNX Metal (-1.75%), CNX Energy (-1.57%), CNX PSE (-1.20%) and CNX IT (-1.03%).

Here are some key levels to watch out for this week
■ As long as the S&P Nifty stays above 5,692 points (pivot) the bulls will be in control.
■ Support levels in declines are pegged at 5,649 and 5,595 points.
■ Resistance levels on the upside are pegged at 5,746 and 5,788 points.

Some Observations
1.    The Nifty came very close to hitting the 61.8% retracement level of the decline from 6,338-4,770 points pegged at 5,740.
2.    The Nifty is now moving within a sharp up sloping channel (in blue), support from which is pegged around 5,410 points and resistance is pegged around 5,795 points, this week.
3.    We have closed above the previous weekly top of 5,629 points (24 February 2012) which is a sign of strength as long as it stays above it.
4.    The weekly chart above also shows a channel (in brown) the resistance line of which should be closely watched in the weeks ahead.
5.    We have completed 89 weeks (Fibonacci number) from the top of 6,338 points (05 November 2010) hence one has to keep a close watch whether the market starts correcting from this level.
6.    The volumes were significantly higher as compared to the previous week which was also the case a week prior to the previous significant top of 5,629 points (24 February 2012). Hence one needs to be alert for the slightest sign of a break of support.

The bulls have managed to hold on despite the dullness for the better part of the week. There is a small body on very high volumes which is a warning that the volatility is likely to increase in the coming weeks. One has to keep a tight stop loss on longs because we have completed 89 weeks from the top of 6,338 points and the previous top of 5,629 points was also made on significantly higher volumes. The simplest stop loss that one can keep is the last week’s low of 5,638 points. Tighten your seat-belts as the volatility is likely to increase in the weeks ahead.

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