The Fed’s meeting comes on the heels of a report in the Wall Street Journal this week that said the Fed is frustrated at the pace the U.S. unemployment is falling and may be considering options to address this issue. However, there are not expectations that the Federal Open Market Committee will actually act at their meeting.
Additionally, market participants may look to see if the European Central Bank takes any action Wednesday to support the euro following comments by two officials regarding the European economic situation and the recent weakness of the single currency.
In theKitco gold survey, out of 33 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those 25 participants, 16 see prices up, while three see prices down, and six are neutral or see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.
Prices were up on the day and the week. The most-active August gold contract on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange settled at $1,618, up 2.22% on the week. September silver settled at $27.498 an ounce, up 0.72% on the week.
After a week of strong gains, gold prices pared some of that strength on Friday on a combination of position-squaring ahead of the weekend and after a stronger-than-expected report of second quarter U.S. gross domestic product data. GDP rose 1.5% in the second quarter, above expectations for a gain of 1.2% to 1.3%.
Support earlier in the week for gold came from hopes of central bank intervention to help the eurozone deal with its sovereign debt crisis. Those hopes sprang from comments first by council member Ewald Nowotny, who said there are arguments for granting the eurozone’s rescue fund a banking license. Then on Thursday, ECB chief Mario Draghi said central bankers are “ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro” within their mandate.
This news put a bottom in the euro and a top in the dollar, said Frank Lesh, futures broker at FuturePath Trading, who added the reaction in the markets demonstrates what happens when participants’ sentiment leans strongly in one direction.
Gold received the information that it wanted to hear. Central banks to the rescue! The ECB will do whatever it takes to defend the euro, whether they have the resources or not we’ll have to wait and see. The Fed is going to embark on QE3 (a third round of quantitative easing), maybe, and China will provide economic stimulus as well,
Analysts at Commerzbank said the comments by Draghi were supportive across the board for commodities. “True, his statement does put enormous pressure on the ECB, and if no determined measures are agreed on at next week’s meeting, the impression conveyed to the market could be a negative one. However, we should not underestimate the significance of what he said, since the main problem of late has been poor sentiment and lack of confidence,” they said.
Gold’s rally through $1,600 was important when looking at technical charts, Lesh said. The metal pushed through resistance at key price levels on the daily and weekly charts, which brought out buyers who trade based on technical chart signals and momentum.
We should find out next week if this is a breakout or a fake out, but if it’s real I expect gold to run to $1,700 plus to complete this move. Look for higher prices next week,
Key Sopport gold next week july 30-3 August 2012
Comex gold futures rose higher as expected. As mentioned in the previous update, a sideways consolidation is under way with key supports in the $1,545-1,550 zone followed by critical support at $1,525. While these two supports hold, we still hold on to our bullish view of a break above $1,645 opening the way up once again.
Only a daily close above $1,645 has the potential to test the critical trend line resistance at $1,695-1,700 levels on the upside or even higher to $1,785-1,800 levels.
Immediate supports are at $1,610-1,612 followed by $1,595-1,598 now.
Only an unexpected daily close below $1,575 could lead to a decline towards $1,525 or even lower.
We still favour prices to break out higher while support levels hold.
The wave counts have to be revisited again as a possible fifth has ended. Potential targets for the fifth wave have already been met. Prices have gone above $1,900 as an extension of the fifth wave.
Fall below $1,600 confirmed that a corrective “A-B-C” has started.
It is possible that Wave “A” ended at $1,535 and a wave “B” ended at $1,804. A possible wave “C” has possibly ended at $1,523.
With the current price move going to $1,627, we feel a broad corrective rally is still under way.
We will review the counts once we see an impulse move breaking the upside at $1,795.
The RSI is in the neutral zone indicating that it is neither overbought nor oversold.
The averages in MACD have gone above the zero line of the indicator hinting at a bullish reversal once again.
Therefore, look for gold futures to consolidate and rise once again.
Resistances are at $1,645, $1,675 and $1,700 and supports are at $1,600, $1,575 and $1,525.
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