Tuesday, May 1, 2012

Spot gold futures prices may 1 2012

Comex gold futures prices may 1 2012, Spot gold, : Gold retreated from two-week highs on Tuesday as the dollar rallied in the wake of a better-than-expected reading of U.S. manufacturing data, which dampened speculation the Federal Reserve could extend monetary easing measures to boost growth.

Spot gold was down 0.2 percent at $1,660.01 an ounce by 1426 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for June delivery were down 50 cents at $1,662.90. The metal earlier hit a high of $1,671.20 as the dollar fell against a basket of currencies.

A recent spate of soft U.S. data revived some expectations that the Fed would offer additional support to the economy via a third round of quantitative easing, or purchases of government bonds to anchor market interest rates.

Without confirmation from the Fed of more support for the U.S. economy, gains in gold could be limited in the near term, analysts said.

"What I would definitely say is, near term, I can't see the price breaking higher, to $1,700 an ounce or above. It needs another catalyst, something more powerful than perhaps in the near future there could potentially be QE," Nikos Kavalis, an analyst at RBS, said.

"Of course, an excessively loose monetary policy environment will continue but whether there is a need for another QE, I am not convinced," he said. "We are in an environment where market-specific fundamentals are taking a bit of a backseat and general sentiment is really the driving force."

Gold benefits from low interest rates as it can attract investor cash away from stocks or bonds facing diminished returns. Loose monetary policy also creates the potential for a pick-up in inflationary pressures, something gold can help portfolio managers guard against.

The gold price ended April in the red for the third consecutive month after data showed improvement in the U.S. economy and the Fed's stance became less dovish.

"The bullion markets have been on the defensive since U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke began distancing the Fed from a third round of quantitative easing in testimony to Congress on 29 February," HSBC analyst James Steel said.

"Prices appear to be stabilizing above $1,620 an ounce, however, and we believe that net long positions on the Comex in gold and silver have fallen to levels at which latent bulls may begin to rebuild positions. This leads us to believe that prices may bottom out, at least in the near term," he said.

Gold's inverse correlation to the dollar softened for a second day running to approach -62 percent, its least negative in nearly two weeks, meaning the bullion price is less likely to move in the opposite direction to the greenback than it was at the start of April, when this correlation deepened to -70 percent.

So the dollar's drop to two-month lows against the Japanese yen on Tuesday did not give the bullion price much of a lift.

Gold may have fallen for three straight months, but it put on its strongest performance against silver since the start of the year.

The gold/silver ratio, which measures the number of ounces of silver needed to buy one ounce of gold, has risen to its highest since January 19, having hit a four-month low on Feb. 29, when the gold price lost more than 5 percent in one day, its largest one-day drop since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in late 2008.

Gold has lost nearly 7 percent in three months, compared with a near-18 percent drop in the price of silver in this time.

Silver which has gained a net 11 percent so far in 2012, was up 0.5 percent on the day at $31.14 an ounce.

Platinum was up 0.3 percent on the day at $1,565.99 an ounce, while palladium was down 0.1 percent at $678.25 an ounce.

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