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Wednesday, February 15, 2012

average gold and silver price forecasts 2012 BNP Paribas estimate

average gold and silver price forecasts 2012 BNP Paribas estimate : While the number of firms raising their gold and silver price forecasts has certainly trailed off in recent months, this morning BNP Paribas was the latest to hike its estimates.

The firm raised its 2012 average gold target to $1,850 from $1,810 per ounce, and to $2,225 from $2,150 in 2013. On a quarterly basis this year, BNP now sees the yellow metal averaging $1,700 in Q1, $1,770 in Q2, $1,905 in Q3, and $2,030 in Q4.

For silver, BNP Paribas increased its 2012 estimate to $37.50 from $36.75, and in 2013 to $52.00 from $49.75 per ounce. Over the four quarters of 2012, the firm predicted silver will average $31.90, $34.95, $39.30, and $43.80, respectively.

In its report, analyst Anne-Laure Tremblay wrote that “After failing to sustain a breach of US$1,750/oz in February, gold has been hovering downwards, currently trading close to US$1,730/oz. Though in the short term, we could see further downside pressure, we remain convinced that the longer term trend for gold is positive given the metal’s strong fundamentals. These include ample liquidity, low or negative real interest rates, portfolio diversification and Chinese demand. In our base scenario, we assume a positive resolution to the European sovereign debt crisis. As such, while gold is exposed to cross-asset liquidation, its longer term trend points to higher prices.”

“Silver tends to be driven by two main factors: the gold price and risk appetite,” Tremblay added. “When both show a positive momentum, silver tends to outperform gold. The gold/silver ratio declined in January from 56 to 51. It has been stable at 51 for most of February. Looking ahead, the gold/silver ratio could see further episodes of decline but given our central scenario for further limited and episodic bouts of risk aversion, we expect the gold/silver ratio to remain on the whole stable in the first half of 2012 from its current level.”
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