CPO futures prices forecast september 24-28 2012

CPO futures prices forecast september 24-28 2012 : The crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract is likely to trend lower next week amid concerns over a sharp build-up in end-September palm oil inventories, that month-end stocks were estimated to hit the year's highest stock level of more than 2.2 million tonnes.

Prices, which broke below the RM2,800 mark for the first time this year, were expected to hover between 2,500 and 2,550 per tonne next week.

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mcx crude palm oil prices july 24 2012

mcx crude palm oil prices july 24 2012 : Crude palm oil remained weak for the second straight day today as prices fell further by Rs 5.80 to Rs 571.90 per 10 kg in futures trade because of sluggish demand in the spot market.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in September month fell by Rs 5.80, or 1 per cent to Rs 571.90 per 10 kg in business turnover of 221 lots.

Likewise, oil for delivery in July contract shed Rs 4.80, or 0.85 per cent to Rs 569.90 per 10 kg in 75 lots.

Marketmen said sluggish demand against adequate stocks position in the physical market mainly kept pressure on crude palm oil prices at futures trade.

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CPO futures dropped july 24, 2012

crude palm oil futures dropped july 24, 2012 : Malaysian crude palm oil futures dropped to the lowest in five weeks on Tuesday, extending losses from the previous day as forecast for rains in the U.S. Midwest improved production outlooks for soybeans.

An improved production outlook for soybeans could see a higher supply of competing soybean oil, narrowing its premium to palm oil and attracting some demand away from the tropical oil.

A gloomy global economic outlook also weighed on palm oil and other commodity markets with a surge in Spain's On top of that, a surge in Spain's borrowing costs triggering alarms that the country could seek a costly bailout also piled pressure on palm oil prices.

"Prices are reflecting macroeconomic risk aversion but technically palm prices are terribly oversold," said a trader with a local commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

"Prices have again became attractive and exports should soon show signs of recovery. Consumers will soon bargain hunt as prices are relatively cheap."

By the midday break, the benchmark October palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange were trading 1.3 percent lower at 2,951 ringgit ($930) per tonne after going as low as 2,924 ringgit, the lowest since June 19.

Traded volume stood at 16,369 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 12,500 lots. On the technicals front, palm oil faces a support at 2,919 ringgit, a break below which will open the way to 2,838 ringgit, said Reuters market analyst Wang Tao.

Weather updates on Monday forecast some rains for soybean crops in U.S. Midwest this week and helped offset a weekly crop condition report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture that downgraded soy crop ratings.

Investor sentiment also weakened as the euro was not far from a two-year low against the dollar, undermined by Moody's Investors Service changing its ratings outlook to negative for Aaa-rated Germany, the Netherlands and Luxembourg amid Europe's ongoing debt crisis.

Palm oil traders will be looking out for Malaysia's palm oil export data for the July 1-25 period to be released on Wednesday after shipments fell 23 percent over the first 20 days of July from a month ago.

The market is also watching for signs of El Nino returning to Southeast Asia as the hot and dry weather could hurt palm oil output for top producers Indonesia and Malaysia. In other markets, Brent crude remained steady above $103 per barrel on Tuesday as China, the world's top energy consumer, showed signs of improvement in its economy though fears of a Spanish bailout curbed oil price gains.

Declines in other vegetable oil markets showed similar investors concerns over wetter weather in the U.S. and the euro zone debt crisis.

By 0452 GMT, the most active U.S. soyoil for December delivery was down 2.2 percent and the most active January 2013 soyoil contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange had lost 2.4 percent. Palm, soy and crude oil prices at 0453 GMT

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Crude palm oil prices closed july 23 2012

Crude palm oil prices closed july 23 2012 : Malaysian crude palm oil futures dropped to the lowest in more than a month on Monday, tracking broader financial market weakness on fresh concern over Spain's ability to avoid a costly bailout that could worsen the euro zone debt crisis.

Risky financial assets including crude oil and grains futures suffered declines as investors liquidated their positions on concern that the debt crisis could stall global growth and damp fuel and food demand.

Tracking a weak global trend, crude palm oil prices fell by 6.90 to Rs 573.20 per 10 kg in futures trade today as speculators offloaded their positions.

Sluggish demand in the spot market further fuelled the downtrend in crude palm oil futures.

At the Multi Commodity Exchange, crude palm oil for delivery in July fell by Rs 6.90, or 1.19%, to Rs 573.20 per 10 kg in business turnover of 268 lots.

The August contract declined by Rs 6.90, or 1.18%, to Rs 576.90 per 10 kg in 2,239 lots.

Market analysts said apart from weak global trend, position offloaded by speculators mainly led to fall in crude palm oil prices at futures trade.

Meanwhile, palm oil for the October delivery lost 2% to $940 a tonne on the Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, the lowest since June 28.

The benchmark October palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange lost 1.7 percent to close at 2,990 ringgit ($943) per tonne. Prices earlier touched a low at 2,969 ringgit, the lowest since June 22.

Traded volume stood at 27,369 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the usual 25,000 lots.

Traders said the weak sentiment was due in part to slow exports and higher production in No.2 producer Malaysia, which could boost palm oil stocks after they fell to a 14-month low in June.

Malaysia's palm oil exports fell 23 percent over the July 1-20 period from a month earlier, said cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance.

Exports to China slowed by more than half for the period on high stockpiles and a slowdown in demand after China's economy showed signs of slowing, said a Singapore-based trader.

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Crude palm oil (CPO) futures prices july 16-20 2012

Crude palm oil (CPO) futures prices july 16-20 2012 : Crude palm oil (CPO) futures prices on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives are likely be lower next week on profit-taking, the prices would likely move between RM2,800-RM2,900 per tonne for July contract next week.

"The market also has been speculating about a downtrend in the prices for a while, the prices were likely to be lower next week to reflect the weak July export estimates for the commodity. Malaysia's palm oil stocks fell 4.85 per cent to 1.70 million tonnes in June 2012 from 1.79 million tonnes the previous month.

Indonesia tax structure on oil palm has made its refined vegetable oils more attractive and cheaper and this affected Malaysian palm oil exports, Indonesia imposes an export tax of 19.5 per cent on CPO while Malaysia charges 30 per cent duty after a tax free limit of 3.6 million metric tonnes.

On a Friday-to-Friday basis, spot month July 2012 fell RM79 to RM3,015 per tonne. August 2012 declined RM51 to RM3,059 per tonne, September 2012 decreased RM65 to RM3,065 per tonne and October 2012 went down RM62 to RM3,071 per tonne.

Weekly turnover fell to 153,737 lots from last week's 149,052 lots while open interest stood at 124,589 contracts On the physical market, July South ended the week RM40 lower at RM3,080 per tonne

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Crude palm oil futures outlook march 26-30 2012

Crude palm oil futures outlook march 26-30 2012, cpo outlook march 26 2012 ; Malaysian palm oil futures on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives exchange ended sharply higher on Friday on upbeat demand outlook expectations of a drop in production further bolstering sentiment. CPO futures tanked lower during the week after data showed China's economic momentum slowed in March as factory activity shrank for a fifth straight month, leaving investors fretting about the risks to global growth.

However, robust US economic data and picking up of economic activity there helped calm nerves and a weakening dollar boosted sentiment further. Malaysian exports jumped 14 per cent for the first 20 days of March from a month ago, according to cargo surveyors, and market players are expecting the trend to continue for the March 1-25 data due on Monday.

CPO May futures moved higher perfectly in line with our expectations. As mentioned in the previous update, possibility of rise higher towards 3,700 Malaysian ringgit (MYR) a tonne in the coming months looks likely. Also, due to some exhaustion signs and overbought conditions seen in the trend, the rally could pause and take a breather. We saw corrective dips to 3,335 MYR/tonne holding dips and a sharp rally higher from there again. Resistances are clustered around 3,465-70 MYR/tonne zone now. This also happens to be a critical point being an inverse head and shoulder neckline point as seen in the chart above. Once above here, possibility exists for a push higher towards 3,550 MYR/tonne followed by 3,600 MYR/tonne. Only a fall below 3,355MYR/tonne could turn the picture neutral again.

We believe the impulse that began from 1,427 MYR/tonne, which hit 4,486 MYR/tonne ended and a prolonged corrective move has possibly ended at 1,335 MYR/tonne. In the big picture, a new impulse began from 1,335 MYR/tonne and the third wave with a projected objective of 3,900 MYR/tonne has been met. A corrective wave “B” has met one potential target near 3,465 MYR/tonne. A wave “C” kind of a decline ended at 2,755 MYR/tonne itself. A possible new impulse has begun now with immediate near-term targets in the 3,465 MYR/tonne range and long-term targets at 3,700 MYR/tonne. RSI is in the overbought zone now indicating that a possible downside correction. The averages in MACD have are above the zero line of the indicator indicating a bullish reversal. Only a cross-over again below the zero line again could hint at resumption in the down trend.

Therefore, look for palm oil futures to test the resistance levels and then correct lower.

Supports are at MYR 3,410, 3,385 and 3,345. Resistances are at MYR 3,465, 3,500 and 3,550.

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Crude palm oil (CPO) futures prices forecast feb 13-17 2012

Crude palm oil (CPO) futures prices forecast feb 13-17 2012 ; Crude palm oil (CPO) futures contract on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives is expected to remain bearish on slow buying interest. Interband Group of Companies senior trader Jim Teh expects futures prices to be traded within a narrow range of between RM3,100 and RM3,150 per tonne next week.

"The market will be happy if the price of CPO futures hovers around RM3,000 per tonne," Teh told Bernama, adding that China, a major consumer of Malaysian palm oil, had considerably cut back on purchases and bought on a "need-only" basis.

He also said Pakistan has lately been buying palm oil from Indonesia.

"Indonesia's stock level is around 4 million tonnes while Malaysia's stocks stood at around 1.9 million tonnes," Teh added.

On a Friday-to-Friday basis, February 2012 increased RM41 to RM3,093 per tonne, March 2012 rose RM59 to RM3,141 per tonne, April 2012 gained RM46 to RM3,131 and May 2012 added RM50 to RM3,130.

Turnover for this holiday-shortened week fell to 67,361 lots, from 80,344 lots, recorded the previous week. Open interest on Friday was higher at 116,457 contracts against last Friday's 111,281 contracts.

On the cash market, February South was RM30 higher at RM3,120 per tonne. Source ; Bernama For the latest updates on the stock market, visit Stock Market Today For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

Malaysian palm oil futures prices november 24 2011

Malaysian palm oil futures prices november 24 2011 : Malaysian palm oil futures dropped to their lowest in two weeks on Thursday as weak global economic sentiment weighed, with an unsuccessful German bond sale adding to worries that the Europe debt crisis was deepening.

The Germany's bond sale had one of the worst results since the launch of the euro, sending ripples across global markets from stocks to commodities. Palm oil this year has 18 percent so far. "Dow Jones lost about 200 points yesterday and Dalian, CBOT were down too. All the external factors are pushing palm futures down," said a trader with a foreign commodities brokerage in Kuala Lumpur.

By the midday break, benchmark February palm oil futures on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange dropped 2.0 percent to 3,097 ringgit ($970) per tonne. Prices fell as low as 3,092 ringgit, a level last seen on Nov. 10.

Overall traded volumes stood at 21,467 lots of 25 tonnes each, much higher than the usual 12,500 lots as more market players came into to sell down their positions.

Technicals remained bearish with Reuters analyst Wang Tao expecting palm oil to extend its losses to 3,050 ringgit per tonne, as indicated by a head-amd-shoulders pattern and a Fibonacci retracement analysis.

The Malaysian Meteorological Department issued orange stage warning that heavy rains could persist till Friday and trigger floods in parts of Pahang -- key oil palm growing area that accounts for 15 percent of production.

Palm oil could turn more bullish as heavy rains tend to reduce harvesting rounds in oil palm estates and floods will complicate the transport of the edible oil to mills and refineries.

The market is bracing for low production in the last quarter due to a seasonal decline in yields and La Nina driven floods triggering floods during the monsoon season.

Buyers in India and Pakistan may rush in to snap up palm oil cargoes before any new price upswing makes the tropical oil expense as they restock after major festivals.

Traders are looking at Cargo surveyors Intertek Testing Services and Societe Generale de Surveillance releasing Malaysian export data for Nov. 1-25 on Friday that could confirm this.

Going against the downtrend in most markets, Brent crude rose above $107 on Thursday as potential strong winter fuel demand and turmoil in the Middle East offset fears that a global economic slowdown could hurt consumption.

But the global economic gloom weighed on other vegetable oil markets. China's most active May 2012 soybean oil contract dropped 2.3 percent. US soyoil markets were closed for a public holiday on Thursday. For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

Indonesia palm oil futures may hit a wall on thin data

Indonesia palm oil futures may hit a wall on thin data ; Indonesia plans to roll out a new palm olein futures contract next year, its third try at pricing the market just as Jakarta uses lower export taxes to supply more refined products of the edible oil globally.

But a lack of reliable industry data from the world's largest palm oil producer will make it difficult for traders and analysts to price, implying this second attempt by the Indonesia Commodity & Derivative Exchange (ICDX) may also fizzle out.

A formal announcement on this olein contract will be made at the Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and Price Outlook in Bali next week.

The contract faces the 30-year old benchmark crude palm oil futures <0#FCPO:> by Bursa Malaysia that sets the tone for the $40 billion industry, but is losing some of its pricing ability as Indonesian output has outpaced Malaysia's.

A bigger test comes from refined palm olein futures on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, whose volumes have surged from its debut in 2007 on strong hedging demand in the world's top buyer of processed edible oil.

Here are questions and answers on the issue:

WHY IS INDONESIAN PALM OIL DATA CRUCIAL FOR FUTURES MARKETS?

Indonesian production is likely to make up half the global total -- versus 40 percent three years ago -- fanning concerns that markets cannot depend on regularly issued Malaysian data that shows slowing output growth to price cargoes.

Also, Indonesia's push to boost annual refining capacity that stands from 6 million to 24 million tonnes, based on estimates from traders and analysts, will see processed palm oil exports grow in the next two to three years.

This will undo Malaysia's refined palm oil export dominance in big markets such as China and underlines a need for a new set of data to gauge real demand and supply.

WHAT IS THE IMPACT OF A LACK OF INDONESIAN DATA?

The success of Indonesian palm oil futures contracts cannot be guaranteed without reliable data.

Crude palm oil futures launched by ICDX last year and Jakarta Futures Exchange's 2009 physical trading platform attracts tiny volumes in part due to local producers' reluctance to reveal their trading positions.

HOW ABOUT PRICE MANIPULATION?

Price manipulation is one other consequence of lack of data.

Indonesian firms sell crude palm oil at a small discount to Malaysian futures, tapping into the general supply tightness in the rival producer, retaining customers and making profits when Indonesian output is so much higher.

Also, spreads between benchmark Bursa Malaysian crude palm oil futures and Indonesian physical prices CPO-ID-P1 have become more volatile, driven by uncertainty over supply.

WHY IS INDONESIAN PALM OIL DATA SCARCE?

Buyers say the scarcity of Indonesian palm oil data is deliberate. Top Indonesian palm oil firms compile their own data and often share information with one another although they will never reveal it to the market for fear of ceding the upper hand in the setting of physical prices.

Also, revealing the exact export data means tax officials could come after some Indonesian companies that tend to under-report cargoes leaving the ports in an effort to avoid tax.

The issue is also about size. The government has an uphill task in surveying exports, stocks and output due to the scale of the industry spread over the archipelago of 17,000 islands.

It boils down to governance. Unlike Malaysia, Indonesia does not have a strong industry regulator to legally ensure that all firms and small farmers report their monthly operations.

WHAT ELSE STANDS IN THE WAY OF INDONESIAN PALM OIL FUTURES?

The Southeast Asian country does not yet have an established exchange with supporting back-office operations such as clearing houses.

That has prompted Indonesian planters, such as PT Astra Agro Lestari and the state plantations joint marketing centre, PT KPB Nusantara, to use Malaysian futures and crude palm oil prices in Rotterdam as the benchmark when auctioning daily output. For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

Equatorial Palm Oil announces first crude palm oil sales

Equatorial Palm Oil announces first crude palm oil sales ; Equatorial Palm Oil (PAL) has begun first sales of its crude palm oil in Liberia, as it eyes up increased production. The AIM-listed palm oil developer said the first sales occurred during April, with a larger sale tender process set to get underway this month.

The West African country's first palm oil mill in Grand Bassa county - which cost $3 million and underwent eight months of construction and testing - was inaugurated by Liberian president Ellen Johnson Sirleaf.

Chief executive Michael Frayne hailed the inauguration and commencement of CPO sales as "two important milestones" for the company as it continued with its development plans to become a significant palm oil producer in the West African region.

"The mill is a tangible example of the company's continued investment providing a positive benefit for Liberia as it drives to create additional value for shareholders," he added.

The plant is currently processing 30 tonnes of fresh oil palm bunches daily, sourced from the surrounding 3,500 hectares of existing oil palms rehabilitated by the company over the past year.

An additional 1,200 hectares are currently being prepared for the 2011 planting of new oil palms in the nursery, Equatorial Palm Oil said.

Production is currently averaging five tonnes of CPO per day, but is expected to rise as the mill reaches full capacity in July of this year, with output in the order of 15 tonnes of CPO per day. For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today