But a lack of reliable industry data from the world's largest palm oil producer will make it difficult for traders and analysts to price, implying this second attempt by the Indonesia Commodity & Derivative Exchange (ICDX) may also fizzle out.
A formal announcement on this olein contract will be made at the Indonesian Palm Oil Conference and Price Outlook in Bali next week.
The contract faces the 30-year old benchmark crude palm oil futures <0#FCPO:> by Bursa Malaysia that sets the tone for the $40 billion industry, but is losing some of its pricing ability as Indonesian output has outpaced Malaysia's.
A bigger test comes from refined palm olein futures on China's Dalian Commodity Exchange, whose volumes have surged from its debut in 2007 on strong hedging demand in the world's top buyer of processed edible oil.
Here are questions and answers on the issue:
WHY IS INDONESIAN PALM OIL DATA CRUCIAL FOR FUTURES MARKETS?
Indonesian production is likely to make up half the global total -- versus 40 percent three years ago -- fanning concerns that markets cannot depend on regularly issued Malaysian data that shows slowing output growth to price cargoes.
Also, Indonesia's push to boost annual refining capacity that stands from 6 million to 24 million tonnes, based on estimates from traders and analysts, will see processed palm oil exports grow in the next two to three years.
This will undo Malaysia's refined palm oil export dominance in big markets such as China and underlines a need for a new set of data to gauge real demand and supply.
WHAT IS THE IMPACT OF A LACK OF INDONESIAN DATA?
The success of Indonesian palm oil futures contracts cannot be guaranteed without reliable data.
Crude palm oil futures launched by ICDX last year and Jakarta Futures Exchange's 2009 physical trading platform attracts tiny volumes in part due to local producers' reluctance to reveal their trading positions.
HOW ABOUT PRICE MANIPULATION?
Price manipulation is one other consequence of lack of data.
Indonesian firms sell crude palm oil at a small discount to Malaysian futures, tapping into the general supply tightness in the rival producer, retaining customers and making profits when Indonesian output is so much higher.
Also, spreads between benchmark Bursa Malaysian crude palm oil futures and Indonesian physical prices CPO-ID-P1 have become more volatile, driven by uncertainty over supply.
WHY IS INDONESIAN PALM OIL DATA SCARCE?
Buyers say the scarcity of Indonesian palm oil data is deliberate. Top Indonesian palm oil firms compile their own data and often share information with one another although they will never reveal it to the market for fear of ceding the upper hand in the setting of physical prices.
Also, revealing the exact export data means tax officials could come after some Indonesian companies that tend to under-report cargoes leaving the ports in an effort to avoid tax.
The issue is also about size. The government has an uphill task in surveying exports, stocks and output due to the scale of the industry spread over the archipelago of 17,000 islands.
It boils down to governance. Unlike Malaysia, Indonesia does not have a strong industry regulator to legally ensure that all firms and small farmers report their monthly operations.
WHAT ELSE STANDS IN THE WAY OF INDONESIAN PALM OIL FUTURES?
The Southeast Asian country does not yet have an established exchange with supporting back-office operations such as clearing houses.
That has prompted Indonesian planters, such as PT Astra Agro Lestari and the state plantations joint marketing centre, PT KPB Nusantara, to use Malaysian futures and crude palm oil prices in Rotterdam as the benchmark when auctioning daily output. For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today
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