Friday, September 21, 2012

Stock market prediction september 24-28 2012

Stock market prediction september 24-28 2012 : U.S. stocks could struggle to stay close to nearly five-year highs next week as worries mount about third-quarter earnings and the market appears primed for a pullback from recent stimulus-driven gains.

A bevy of economic reports, including durable goods orders, will grab attention, particularly after the Federal Reserve unveiled its plan on September 13 for a third round of aggressive stimulus to help revive the flagging U.S. economy.
While the action ignited a rally in stocks, analysts have worried that it may suggest the U.S. economy is in worse shape than many had feared

The market gets a heavy dose of consumer-related news next week, a couple of notable earnings reports, possibly some earnings warnings, and quite possibly (and finally) a Spanish bailout plan.

The biggest event may once again come from Europe. There are reports that Spain is prepping a formal bailout request, which may come on Thursday, according to the FT. Spain, of course, has been denying that it needs a bailout, but actually requesting one, whatever problems it leads to down the road, would remove one unknown from the market. We suppose that’s worth something.

Here in the States, there are only a handful of earnings reports next week, highlighted by Nike NKE -0.21% and Micron on Thursday, and Lennar on Monday, but keep an eye out for earnings warnings. Given the lame expectations for the third quarter, there might be a bunch of them.

A very busy economic calendar includes readings on how consumers assess the economy and whether they are spending in the third quarter. Expectations are that consumers are feeling better in September and spent modestly in August.

The Conference Board’s confidence index will be reported Tuesday. The median forecast of economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires expect the September index to rise to 65.0 from 60.6 in August.

The final reading of September consumer sentiment, compiled by Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan, is scheduled for Friday. That index is expected to edge up to 79.4, close to the 79.2 preliminary reading for this month, which was up sharply from the 74.3 final reading for August.

The report on August income and spending will also come Friday. The median forecast expects personal income rose 0.2% and consumer spending increased 0.5% last month. Both readings are close to their respective increases posted in July.

Other important reports on tap for next week include new-home sales and durable-goods orders.

Sales of new homes, to be reported Wednesday, are expected to increase 2.2% to an annual rate of 380,000 in August. The expected gain underscores the gradual recovery taking place in the housing sector.

Meanwhile, economists expect new orders for durable goods took a header in August. The median forecast is for a 4.5% decline, but don’t read disaster in the drop. It follows a 4.1% jump in July and reflects fewer bookings of new aircraft. Because of their large price tags, jets make monthly changes in the total orders very volatile.

Economic event next week september 24-28 2012

Monday, september 24 2012


Chicago Fed August national activity index (8:30 a.m. ET)

Dallas Fed September manufacturing survey (10:30): came in at -1.6 in August.


Lennar Paychex PAYX +0.23%, Red Hat

Tuesday, september 25 2012


S&P Case-Shiller home-prices index for July  (9:00): prices seen rising 1%, after rising 0.5% in June.

September consumer confidence (10:00): seen rising to 65.0 from 60.6 in August.

July FHFA home prices index (10:00): seen rising 0.7%, same as June.

Richmond Fed September manufacturing survey (10:00): came in at -9 in August.


Carnival Jabil Circuit JBL -1.82% H.B. Fuller FUL +0.12%, FactSet

Wednesday, september 26 2012

August new home sales (10:00): seen rising 2.2%, after rising 3.6%.

Worthington Industries WOR -0.85% Progress Software PRGS -0.29%

Thursday, september 27 2012


Weekly jobless claims (8:30): seen falling to 375,000, from 382,00o the week before.

August durable goods orders (8:30): seen falling 4.5%, after rising 4.1% in July.

Second-quarter real GDP (3rd read) (8:30): seen at 1.7%, flat with second read.

August pending home sales   (10:00): seen flat, after rising 2.4% in July.
Kansas City Fed September manufacturing survey (11:00): came in at 8 in August.

Nike, Micron Tech Texas Industries TXI +0.91% Accenture ACN +0.09%, Discover Financial

Friday, september 28 2012

August personal income (8:30): seen rising 0.2%, after rising 0.3% in July.
August consumer spending (8:30): seen rising 0.5%, after rising 0.4% in July.
August core PCE prices (8:30): seen up 0.1%, after being unchanged in July.
September Chicago PMI (9:45): seen slipping to 52.5, from 53.0.
September Reuters/UMich consumer sentiment (final) (9:55): seen at 79.4, edging over initial reading of 79.2. For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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