Sunday, January 8, 2012

stock market outlook january 9 -13 2012

stock market outlook january 9 -13 2012 : Fears a capital black hole is spreading over the euro zone's banking sector threatens to overshadow the first meeting in 2012 of German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy next week to discuss the region's debt crisis.

European banks technically have until January 20 to say how they will raise the estimated 115 billion euroof capital needed by the end of June to repair balance sheets devastated by the euro zone's sovereign debt crisis.

But investors' nerves have become frayed after seeing Italian bank UniCredit (CRDI.MI) forced to deeply discount a planned one-for-one equity rights issue, and calls for more details on how others plan to raise funds are set to grow.

These are some major factors investors should track for a sense of market movements in the short term:

In the US, there has been a lot of positive data over the last few weeks at the job market front. It has been reported that the private sector hiring has picked up quite significantly over the last couple of months, and that has resulted in constant drop in the jobless claims.

The developments in the European region kept the markets nervous last week. Soon Italy and Spain need to raise large amounts of money through government bonds auctions starting next week. Moreover, Hungary recently had to agree to a high interest rate of over 10 percent on its debt. The Euro slipped to a 15-month low against the dollar as traders are taking a cautious approach ahead of the Italy and Spain bond auctions.

However, there was some relief as the France debt auction evoked a good subscription last week with acceptable interest yields in line with market expectations. More nervousness and weakness is expected in the markets during the coming few weeks as the developments in the European region unfold.

In China, there was some news that the government will implement further curbs on lending and investments to control the surging housing costs. This triggered negative sentiments in the markets as the prices of stocks of real estate companies in China took a severe beating.

Here is an economic news calendar for the week of January 9th to January 13th 2012 ;

Monday 9th of January 2012
11:00 – German Industrial Production:
this report will present the growth during November of Germany’s industrial production and could indicate the progress of the German Economy and consequently may influence forex and commodities traders

15:30 – BOC Business Outlook Survey: this quarterly report will provide an analysis of Canada’s businesses and offer some insight of what is up ahead for Canada

Tuesday 10th of January 2012
China’s Trade Balance:
according to Reuters China’s trade surplus will reach a four month high of $21.6 billion, but during 2011 China’s surplus has shrunk to $160 billion; if this trend will continue it could indicate that China’s economic growth is slowing down;

FOMC Members Speak: FOMC members Williams and Pianalto will give speeches;

Wednesday 11th of January 2012
09:30 – Great Britain Trade Balance: In the previous report regarding October 2011, UK’s seasonally adjusted trade balance deficit of goods and services contracted from £4.3 billion in September to £1.6 billion in October; if this trade balance deficit will continue to shrink it could affect GBP;

15:30 – EIA Crude Oil Market Report: the EIA (Energy Information Administration) will publish its weekly report on the U.S oil and petroleum market for the week ending on January 6th; in the recent report, the U.S petroleum & oil stockpiles rose by 3.4 million barrels to 1,740.26 million barrels

3:30 – Chinese CPI: in November, the Chinese inflation rate sharply fell compared with October’s CPI and reached an annual rate of 4.2% (it was 5.5% in October); this rate is coming very close to China’s inflation target of 4% in annual terms. The sharp drop in the inflation rate is probably an indication of the effect of the steps taken by the People Bank of China’s to curb the inflation pressures;

Thursday 12th of January 2012
09:30 – Great Britain Manufacturing Production : this monthly report will show the month to month change in the British manufacturing production in November; in the previous report regarding October the seasonally adjusted manufacturing index fell by 0.7% (M-2-M), and the index of production also slipped by 0.7%; this news may influence forex and commodities traders;

12:00 – Great Britain Bank Rate & Asset Purchase Plan : Bank of England will decide on its basic rate for January 2012 and the progress of its asset purchase plan; as of December the BOE’s rate remained unchanged at 0.5% and the asset purchase plan of £275 billion continued;

13:30 – Department of Labor Report – U.S. Unemployment Claims: initial claims fell by 15,000 to 372,000 claims for the week ending on December 31st; the number of insured unemployment declined by 22k to 3.595 million during the week of December 24th; the upcoming report may influence forex and commodities traders;

13:30 – ECB Press Conference and Euro Rate Decision: In the upcoming rate decision the President of the European Central Bank, Mario Draghi will have to consider the ongoing peril in which the EU is facing vis-à-vis the debt crisis, and the recent Euro stat release showing that the Euro Area inflation rate declined to an annual rate of 2.8% (annual terms) in December. This fall in inflation comes despite ECB’s decision to cut last month the EU rate to 1.00%. These two considerations might tilt the odds towards another rate reduction, if not in the upcoming ECB rate decision, then perhaps in the next one. If ECB will cut again interest rates it is likely to pressure down the Euros to US dollar exchange rate;

13:30 – Changes in U.S. Retail Sales: this report will present the monthly changes in the retail sales and food services during December; in the recent November report, the retail sales, when controlling for the price changes, slightly inclined by 0.2% from the previous month; gasoline stations sales decreased by 0.1% in November compared with October 2011, but were 12.9% above sales in November 2010; this report could indicate the changes in U.S’s gasoline demand

15:30 – EIA U.S. Natural Gas Market Report: in the upcoming weekly report of the EIA on U.S. natural gas market will analyze and report the changes for the week ending on January 6th on natural gas storage, production, demand and prices. In the last report, natural gas storage declined by 76 Bcf to 3,472 billion cubic feet for all lower 48 states

Friday 13th of January 2012
09:30 – Great Britain PPI Input: this report will present the yearly rate of GB’s producer price index for December 2011; in the last report regarding November the input price rose by 0.1% (M-2-M); this news may influence British Pound traders;

13:30 –Canadian Trade Balance: In the December report regarding October 2011, imports rose while exports decreased during the month: exports decreased by 3.0%, and imports inclined by 1.9%; as a result, the trade surplus fell from $1 billion in September to a deficit of $885 million in October; exports of energy products decreased by 5.8%, to $8.9 billion, and exports of industrial goods and materials also declined by 6.0% to $9.8 billion;

13:30 –American Trade Balance: This monthly report for November 2011 will show the changes in imports and exports of goods and services to and from the U.S, including commodities such as crude oil; The American trade balance report for October 2011 the goods deficit decreased by $0.7 billion compared with September 2011 and reached $58.8 billion; the service surplus remained virtually unchanged at $15.8 billion; as a result, the goods and services deficit declined during the month to $43.5 billion. For the latest updates on the stock market, visit Stock Market Today
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