Friday, November 4, 2011

stock market outlook weekly november 7 2011

stock market outlook weekly november 7 -11 2011 : European officials in the past week wrestled with Greece on its bailout, which helped drive stocks to their first weekly loss in six weeks. Europe, particularly the creeping worries about Italy, will stay at the top of the list for investors.

But as Washington edges towards a Nov. 23 deadline, traders are likely to start handicapping the work of the bipartisan Congressional Super Committee, tasked with reducing the deficit by $1.5 trillion.

I think we might get a little more focused on the headlines out of D.C.," said Barry Knapp, head of equity portfolio strategy at Barclays Capital.

"Next week is going to be all about Europe. You don't have earnings. You don't have central banks. You don't have the jobs report. You have a bunch of 'B' level economic indicators. Next week is likely to be a cooling off period," said Dan Greenhaus, global market strategist with BTIG.

Analysts have been concerned that as the Super Committee comes down to the wire on its plan, tensions will run high and the acrimonious tone surrounding the debt ceiling debate last summer could again dominate headlines. They blame that public wrangling, which led to the downgrade of U.S. debt, for a clear falloff in business and consumer confidence.

There were reports this week that a six-member subset of the 12-member Super Committee is working to find a solution, since the two parties are so far apart on taxes and spending. If the committee does not reach a deal by the deadline, there are $1.2 trillion in spending cuts that will automatically be triggered across government agencies, starting in 2013.

"To me this week was crucial in our thinking for the potential upside for the balance of the year. If we had gone through this week and it had been all about the U.S. data, we'd probably be above 1300 (on the S&P 500) right now," he said. Knapp said the markets also learned from the data in the past week that the economy in Europe is deteriorating, and even new European Central Bank President Mario Draghi warned a recession was possible.

As for the coming week in the U.S., there are some major earnings, with retailers and media companies the highlights. Disney, Viacom, Macy's and Nordstrom are all reporting. The economic data highlights are the usual weekly claims, but also trade data and consumer sentiment. The government auctions $72 billion in Treasury notes and bonds Tuesday through Thursday.

What to Watch in the Week Ahead november 7 - 11 2011(all times EST)

Monday
Earnings: Sysco, Priceline.com, Sotheby's, Dish Networks, Echostar
0300 p.m. Consumer credit

Tuesday
Earnings: Toyota Motors, Vodafone, Fossil, International Flavors and Fragrances, Liberty Media, Progressive, Rockwell, Scotts Miracle Gro, ActivisionBlizzard, Take Two Interactive, Weight Watchers

0730 a.m. NFIB (small business) survey

1000 a.m. JOLTS survey

0100 p.m. U.S. Treasury auctions $32 billion 3-year notes

Wednesday
Earnings: Anheuser Busch InBev, General Motors, HSBC, Anglo Gold Ashanti, Macy's, Computer Sciences, Dean Foods, Rockwell, General Growth Properties, Ralph Lauren, Wendy's, Sodastream, Cisco, Green Mountain Roasters, Lionsgate Entertainment, Advance Auto Parts

1000 a.m. Wholesale trade

0100 p.m. U.S. Treasury auctions $24 billion 10-year notes

Thursday
Earnings: Viacom, Disney, Siemens, Kohl's, Deutsche Telekom, Nordstrom, Molycorp

0830 a.m. Initial weekly employment claims

0830 a.m International trade

0830 a.m. Import prices

0200 p.m. Federal budget

0100 p.m. U.S. Treasury auctions $16 billion 30-year bonds

Friday

Earnings: Petrobras, DR Horton, Telefonica, Brookfield Asset Management

*Bond market closed for Veteran's Day

09:55 a.m. Consumer sentiment

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