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Saturday, November 26, 2011

iraq economic outlook 2012-2013

iraq economic outlook 2012-2013 : Despite the successful formation of a government in December 2010, we expect political progress to remain slow and stability to remain fragile. A broken power-sharing agreement, withdrawal of US troops, and foreign intervention into northern Iraq all present risks. We expect Iraq’s economy to post robust rates of growth over the medium term, expanding by an average of 11.3% a year through 2016. Returns on energy investment, healthy oil prices, and the promotion of non-hydrocarbon sectors of the economy are the primary factors underpinning our view.

Iraq’s plans to reduce its fiscal deficits will meet with mixed success. While we believe oil production and exports will increase rapidly, we are less confident regarding Baghdad’s ability to privatise many of its state-owned enterprises.

Major Forecast Changes

We have revised down our short-term political risk rating from 42.3 to 40.6. Rising political risks, including impatience within Iraqiya and Kurdish political parties as well as renewed security threats, could lead to a collapse of government or a return to sectarian warfare. Our average inflation forecasts for 2012 and 2013 have been revised up to 5.0% and 4.8% year-on-year (y-o-y) respectively, from 4.6% and 4.3% previously. While food and fuel commodity prices are falling, scarce goods and services - including housing, water, and electricity - will not see supply increases until 2013 at the earliest.

Key Risks To Outlook
Attacks on oil infrastructure, caused by terrorism or acts of political protest, could result in downside risks to our growth forecasts. A breakdown of the coalition government could lead to a period of pronounced instability and slower growth. Political unrest in large oil-producing countries such as Saudi Arabia could cause a more pronounced spike in global energy prices, leading to upside risks to our growth forecasts and downside risks to our fiscal deficit forecasts. For the latest updates on the stock market, visit Stock Market Today

Iraqi inflation forecasts 2012- 2013, iraq economic collapse 2011-2012, Iraqi Dinar Revaluation 2012, Iraqi Dinar Revaluation 2013,iraq economic growth forecast 2012 For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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