In preparation for the new trading week, here is the outlook for the Top 10 spotlight economic events that will move the markets around the globe.
1. GBP- U.K. CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation preferred by the Bank of England, Tues., Sept. 13, 4:30 am, ET.
Inflation in the U.K. is expected to remain stubbornly above the Bank of England’s 3.0% ceiling for another month with consumer prices forecast to increase by 4.5% y/y in August from 4.4% y/y in July. The GBP could take a breather from last week’s sell-off ahead of the CPI report on expectations of elevated inflationary pressures, but with the odds of a Bank of England rate hike in upcoming months significantly reduced and if risk appetite does not make a comeback, any pound rallies could fade quickly.
2. GBP- U.K. Jobless Claims and Unemployment Rate, the main gauges of employment trends and labor market conditions, Wed., Sept. 14, 4:30 am, ET.
The U.K. labor market is forecast to see a smaller increase of up to 35,000 new claims for unemployment benefits in August following the larger than expected increase by 37,100 in jobless claims for the month of July, while the unemployment rate remains unchanged at 7.9%.
3. EUR- EU, ECB and IMF Audit Greece, Wed., Sept. 14, all day event.
After cutting short their early September visit to the debt-ridden nation, the “Troika” of EU, ECB and IMF auditors will return to Greece to assess if the country will meet funding conditions to receive its next 110 billion euro installment of financial aid. The audit usually takes about two weeks and the EUR could continue to feel the pressure on market jitters about the possibility of a Greek default, which could move the troubled nation closer to exiting the monetary union. On the other hand, if Greece meets the requirements and receives the next tranche of bail-out money, the EUR could see an opportunity for a relief rally.
4. USD- U.S. Retail Sales, an important gauge of consumer spending measuring the total receipts at retail establishments, Wed., Sept. 14, 8:30 am, ET.
Consumer spending in the U.S. is expected to slow with retail sales forecast to register a smaller 0.2% m/m increase in August, compared with 0.5% m/m in July.
5. NZD- Reserve Bank of New Zealand Interest Rate Announcement, Wed., Sept. 14, 5:00 pm, ET.
Five major central banks demonstrated last week that their main focus is to do whatever is necessary to support economic growth and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand would be likely to share that view. In an environment which is not supportive of tightening measures, the bank is not expected to make any changes to its current monetary policy and is forecast to keep the benchmark rate at 2.50%.
6. CHF- Swiss National Bank Interest Rate Announcement, Thurs., Sept. 15, 3:30 am, ET.
In a historic move, for the first time since 1978 the Swiss National Bank resorted to the “shock and awe” option to curb the strength of the franc by setting a minimum exchange rate target of 1.20 against the euro. The monetary policy meeting would serve as a reminder that the Swiss National Bank “will no longer tolerate a EUR/CHF exchange rate below the minimum rate of CHF 1.20” and that “the SNB will enforce this minimum rate with the utmost determination and is prepared to buy foreign currency in unlimited quantities."
7. EUR- Euro-zone HICP- Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices, the main measure of inflation preferred by the European Central Bank, Thurs., Sept. 15, 5:00 am, ET.
The Euro-zone’s inflation gauge is forecast to show inflationary pressures flattening at 2.5% y/y in August, same as the 2.5% y/y reading in the previous month. With the European Central Bank taking a more dovish stance on inflation and refocusing on growth, expectations of a forthcoming ECB rate cut coupled with uncertainty, pessimism and fears that the EU debt crisis will spread, will continue to be the major risk factors for the euro.
8. USD- U.S. CPI- Consumer Price Index, the main measure of inflation in the world’s largest economy, Thurs., Sept. 15, 8:30 am, ET.
Consumer prices in the United States are expected to rise by 0.2% m/m in August, pulling back from the 0.5% m/m increase in July. The Core CPI (excluding food and energy costs) is forecast to remain flat at 0.2% m/m in August.
9. USD- U.S. Industrial Production, the main gauge of industrial activity measuring the output of factories, mines and utilities, Thurs., Sept. 15, 9:15 am, ET.
The U.S. industrial production is forecast to register an anemic increase by only 0.1% m/m in August, compared with 0.9% m/m in July.
10. USD- U.S. Consumer Sentiment, the University of Michigan's monthly survey of 500 households on their financial conditions and outlook of the economy, Fri., Sept. 16, 9:55 am, ET.
The preliminary September estimate of the U.S. consumer sentiment index is forecast to inch higher to 56.0 from 55.7 in August- only a point above the post-Lehman’s collapse reading of 55 in November 2008. As the Fed’s September 20-21 meeting approaches, another sequence of unimpressive U.S. economic data throughout the week could reinforce the market’s expectations that QE3 may be just around the corner. (source seekingalpha.com ) For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today
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