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Thursday, December 22, 2011

Iranian rial exchange rate forecast 2012

Iranian rial exchange rate forecast 2012 : The uptick in crude oil prices since the start of 2011 will benefit Iran’s economy substantially through investment-focused fiscal stimulus, but we expect the government’s revenues to slow down in FY 2012/13 and FY 2013/14, boding ill for the sustainability of government-driven economic activity over the medium term.

We see growth and investment opportunities in Iran, highlighting the pharmaceuticals, telecoms and autos industries as having the most potential. Infrastructure will remain lacklustre, while the shipping and oil & gas sectors will suffer greatly from sanctions. The removal of centrist and opposition politicians from Iran’s political scene signifies a consolidation of conservative political power, which could result in another wave of popular demonstrations from those who oppose the current regime.

Given the hard-line stance of the regime, along with the West’s unwillingness to use military force, we expect economic sanctions to remain in place.

Major Forecast Changes
We have revised our currency forecast to reflect the fact that our projections that are now based on the Iranian calendar year (which runs from March 21 to March 20). Our average FY 2011/12 and FY 2012/13 forecasts are now IRR 10,750/US $ and IRR 11,400/US $ respectively. For the latest updates on the stock market, visit Stock Market Today For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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