Sunday, June 19, 2011

Gold, Silver and Oil Trading outlook june 20 2011

Gold, Silver and Oil Trading outlook june 20 2011 : The commodity market stabilized Friday after slumping Thursday. Sovereign concerns in Greece remained and US data were mixed. But IMO most have been priced in and some players started bargain hunting as they thought the sell off was overextended.

The WTI Crude contract for July delivery fluctuated within a narrow range and closed flat while the August Brent Crude contract rebounded and ended the day gaining +0.89%.

Gold stayed firm as escalated debt problems in Greece upstaged strength in the USD.

The Overall Technical Outlook
Gold

Gold moved within a very tight range since Thursday, but this range resides above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of CD leg for the Bearish harmonic Gartley pattern at 1522.00.

At the same time, RSI turned Neutral, while Stochastic attempted to show negative sign despite stabilizing above value of 50.00. That being the case I will hold to my Neutral anticipation until I get a clearer sign to ID the direction.

The trading range for Friday moved among the Key support at 1505.00 and Key resistance now at 1556.00.

The general trend over the short term basis is to the Northside, targeting 1600.00 as long as 1430.00 remains intact on the weekly closings.

Support: 1522.00, 1519.00, 1513.00, 1505.00, 1500.00
Resistance: 1532.00, 1537.00, 1549.00, 1556.00, 1562.00

Analyst's recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above my opinion is, stand aside until a clearer sign appears to ID the upcoming Big move.

Silver

Silver is showing a Bearish tendency, but until now it could not achieve a 4 hour closing below 35.00 Zones since Thursday.

The proposed Elliott wave count remains valid asI believe that C wave of ZZ formation is in progress for the time being. As a consequence, I will keep my negative position intact and a break of 35.00 will confirm.

The trading range for Friday is among the Key support at 33.05 and Key resistance now at 37.45.

The general trend over short term IMO is to the Southside, targeting 26.65 as long a 48.50 remains intact on a weekly close.

Support : 35.00, 34.80, 34.50, 34.35, 33.90

Resistance: 35.65, 36.15, 36.35, 36.80, 37.00

Analyst's recommendation : Based on the charts and explanations above my opinion is, sell silver below 35.00 gradually targeting 33.90 and 33.05 , while the stop loss is a daily closing above 36.35 might be prudent.

Crude Oil

A move in Crude Oil back above 94.45 will indicate a potential reversal Zone of the Bullish Butterfly pattern shown on the right of the image, while this level is the 127.2% extended target of the CD leg of the Bearish Bat pattern shown on the left.

The trading range for Friday was between the major support at 92.00 and the major resistance at 99.05.

The short term trend is to the Southside with steady daily closing below 109.75 targeting 85.40.

Support : 94.45, 93.80, 93.45, 92.75, 92.00
Resistance: 95.05, 96.30, 96.60, 97.70, 98.00

Analyst's recommendation Based on the charts and explanations above my opinion is buy Crude Oil around 94.45 (if and when it gets back there), and take profit in stages at 96.60 and 98.25. Stop loss with daily closing below 93.0. (Source http://community.nasdaq.com )
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