Tuesday, May 3, 2011

Toronto stock market outlook May 3 2011, oil, gold prices lower

Toronto stock market outlook May 3 2011, oil, gold prices lower : The Toronto stock market was sharply lower Tuesday as investors looked past the majority government victory for the Conservatives and focused on headwinds facing equity markets. Resource stocks led declines in Toronto as a stronger U.S. dollar pressured oil and gold prices and the S&P/TSX composite index fell 168.59 points to 13,765.92. The TSX Venture Exchange slipped 25.74 points to 2,181.66.

The higher greenback and lower crude prices pushed the Canadian dollar down 0.08 of a cent to 105.09 cents US. Traders were relieved to see the Conservatives win a majority in Monday's election as it removes a degree of uncertainty from the political landscape.

But analysts said there was plenty of other things for investors to focus on.

"The Mideast is in turmoil, the U.S. is in turmoil and probably will continue to be as it figures out it has a long term economic problem. And you have the European debt crisis," said John O'Connell, chief executive of Davis Rea Ltd.

He added that investors are looking for a reason to take the market higher as a successful first-quarter earnings reporting period starts to wind down.

"Revenue growth has been reasonably anemic but profit growth has been good," said O'Connell.

"And people are starting to look back and say, well stocks aren't cheap but not expensive but fair. And what's going to be the next catalyst? The good earnings and the good numbers are over. The stock market has rallied on earnings news."

The TSX energy sector lost two per cent as oil prices fell to below $113 a barrel as a stronger U.S. dollar made crude more expensive for investors with other currencies.

The June crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.32 to US$112.20 barrel.

Expectations that U.S. crude supplies are growing also helped push prices lower.

Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos., said it expects U.S. oil supplies to have grown last week by 1.7 million barrels. The U.S. government will release its report on oil supplies on Wednesday.

Crude has jumped about 34 per cent since mid-February, a rally fuelled by disruption of oil supplies in Libya and a weaker dollar. On days when the U.S. dollar strengthens, commodities such as oil tend to fall.

Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) dropped 84 cents to $43.23 while Cenovus Energy (TSX:CVE) was down 74 cents to C$35.44.

Suncor Energy Inc. (TSX:SU) reported first quarter net earnings of $1.028 billion, or 65 cents per share. That compares to net earnings of $779 million, or 50 cents per share in the corresponding quarter a year ago. Canada's largest energy company also reported a 10 per cent increase in its quarterly dividend to 11 cents per common share. Its shares declined $1.82 to $42.19.

Metal prices also backed off as the June gold contract on the Nymex declined $16 from Monday's latest record close to US$1,541.10 an ounce. The gold sector was off 2.37 per cent as Goldcorp Inc. (TSX:G) faded $1.16 to C$48.96 and Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX) lost 63 cents to $46.61.

The base metals component declined 1.46 per cent as the July copper contract in New York gained five cents at US$4.23 pound. Quadra FNX Mining (TSX:QUX) dropped 24 cents to C$14.96 while Teck Resources (TSX:TCK.B) shed 66 cents to $51.23.

The financials sector also helped push the TSX lower, down 0.6 per cent with Manulife Financial (TSX:MFC) down 20 cents to $17.30 and National Bank (TSX:NA) fell 66 cents to $78.99.

There was also major acquisition activity for investors to chew over as conglomerate Onex Corp. (TSX:OCX) announced it was selling injection moulding machine maker Husky International to Berkshire Partners and OMERS Private Equity for US$2.1 billion. Onex shares were 13 cents lower to $35.70.

New York markets were weak amid earnings disappointments and data which showed that U.S. factory orders rose in March for the fifth consecutive month, rising three per cent to US$462.9 billion.

The Dow Jones industrial average edged up 1.48 points to 12,808.84.

The Nasdaq composite index fell 18.15 points to 2,845.93 while the S&P 500 index was off 4.21 points to 1,357.01.

In other earnings news, WestJet Airlines Ltd. said its first-quarter profit rose to $48.2 million or 34 cents a share on the back of stronger passenger volumes. The showing was far higher than the 18 cents that analysts expected. Revenue was up 24.7 per cent to $772.4 million, ahead of expectations of $736 million. Its shares gained 47 cents to $14.75.

Pfizer Inc., the world's biggest drugmaker by revenue said its first-quarter profit rose 10 per cent to US$2.22 billion. The maker of cholesterol blockbuster Lipitor and impotence pill Viagra said revenue was $16.5 billion, down a half-per cent from $16.58 billion a year ago. But Prizer shares declined 63 cents to US$20.39 after the company reduced its revenue forecast for 2011.

Overseas, most Asian stock markets fell as euphoria over the death of bin Laden faded and investors turned their attention back to earnings and economic reports.

Australia's S&P/ASX 200 was down 0.7 per cent even after a widely expected decision by the central bank to hold interest rates steady.

South Korea's Kospi tumbled 1.7 per cent.

Bucking the trend, Hong Kong's Hang Seng rose 0.2 per cent while China's Shanghai Composite Index climbed 0.2 per cent. Both markets had been closed Monday for a holiday.

London's FTSE 100 index slipped 0.06 per cent, Frankfurt's DAX fell 0.72 per cent while the Paris CAC 40 was down 0.52 per cent.
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