Thursday, April 21, 2011

Japan economic forecast 2011 - OECD cuts Japan's 2011

Japan economic forecast 2011 - OECD cuts Japan's 2011 : US: The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose to its highest level since June 2008 on Wednesday after existing-home sales rose by more than forecast last month and encouraging earnings from Tuesday boosted technology stocks higher. After markets closed at 4:00pm, Apple announced a stunning fiscal 2011 second quarter, which ended March 26, 2011, with 83% revenue growth, 95% profit growth record and iPhone sales up 113%.

Apple's results and outlook pushed up its shares in after-hours trading by 3.9% to $355.69 at $342.41. The market capitalisation was $315.45bn compared with Microsoft's $216.45bn and Dell's $28.94bn.

Japan: The impact of last month's devastating quake and tsunami disaster will cut Japan's economic growth to 0.8% this year, the OECD said Thursday, halving its previous forecast of 1.7%.

However, the Paris-based think-tank for 34 mainly developed countries, said massive government and business investment in reconstruction is expected to trigger a sharp rebound in 2012, with the economy growing 2.3% up from the OECD's previous forecast of 1.3%.

The OECD said: "In addition to the usual risks related to the strength of world trade, exchange rates and commodity prices, there is great uncertainty about developments in Japan, including the duration of electricity shortages, the problems at the Fukushima nuclear plant and the size and timetable of government reconstruction spending. Consequently, the timing and strength of an economic rebound is exceptionally difficult to forecast."

Economic Survey of Japan 2011

UK retail sales expected to contract in March: Davy economist, Conall Mac Coille, comments - - "The outlook for UK consumer spending has deteriorated as weak nominal wage growth, coupled with higher tax rates and CPI inflation, has pushed down on real incomes. Since January, the rise in the value added tax (VAT) rate by 2.5 percentage points to 20% and higher oil prices have had a large negative impact on UK consumers' spending power. Hence, measures of UK consumer confidence have declined through the second half of 2010 as consumers have realised that the negative impact of the planned fiscal consolidation was upon them. Other indicators for spending, ahead of today's retail sales data, have indicated deteriorating conditions in the retail sector.

Today's release of UK retail sales is expected to show a contraction of 0.4% on the month in March following a 1% decline in February. In January, retail sales grew by 1.1% despite the increase in VAT rates during that month. But the rise in January most likely reflected a bounce-back from the 0.5% decline in December, which most likely reflected poor weather conditions during that month. So the full impact of the slowdown in retail sales on consumer spending may not be felt until the Q2 national accounts data.

Yesterday's release by the Bank of England of the minutes of the April Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting suggests that the weakness of consumer spending is pushing out the likelihood of rate increases in the near future. Most members thought that the news on the month 'had probably been to the downside.' That said, the MPC warned that CPI inflation could still rise above 5% in 2011 despite the recent decline in the headline rate to 4.0% in March from 4.4% in February. However, a rate rise in May now seems far from the certainty that the market had priced up until the recent negative news on the UK consumer."

Economic View: State considers asset sales; Goodbody economist, Juliet Tennent, comments - -"According to the Report of the Review Group on State Assets and Liabilities, released yesterday, the NAV of the commercial State assets that it is recommending are sold is around €5bn, which the report also caveats is no more that a rough guide. As the Memorandum of Understanding between Ireland and the IMF/EU does not specify a target for asset disposals, any proceeds of such sales could be used to reduce the State’s projected gross debt position.

It would have no impact on the deficit position which would nevertheless have to be tackled and the ongoing austerity measures would still have to be implemented. The report recommends a planned programme of asset sales, as opposed to an accelerated process, thus it may be some years before any value is realized.

On our forecasts, a €5bn reduction in the State’s debt level would reduce the Debt/GDP ratio by roughly three percentage points and assuming the programme was complete by 2014, would see the ratio rise to 117%, from 101% in 2011, versus the 120% we currently forecast."

Irish Financials; Legal challenge to AIB debt restructuring; Goodbody's Colm Foley comments - -"We note the Government’s plans to buy back some of AIB’s subordinated debt have been met with a legal challenge from two of its bondholders.

The action is in relation to the Subordinated Liability Order (SLO), which was passed last week in the high court and will amend certain debt coupon terms, maturity dates, and permit the purchase by AIB of the debt instruments. With €2.8bn of hybrid debt capital outstanding, the Finance Minister has previously said that the Government intends to 'take whatever other action is necessary to ensure appropriate burden sharing by remaining subordinated bondholders.' Of relevance to BOI, is its €2.7bn of hybrid capital, which will be central to its €4.2bn equity raise plan.

The legal challenge has the potential to hinder the burden sharing, however, there appears to be an appetite on the Government’s side to ensure this is pushed through. The motion has been adjourned until the first week in May."

Sweden: ‘The Canada of Europe’: "They’ve got good economic growth, they’ve got a good underlying export-based economy, so I don’t think we should be worried about this, but I think we should keep a good eye on it,” Tim Skeet, managing director of the Financial Institution Group at RBS, told CNBC about the Swedish economy and unemployment rate:

US Markets


In New York Wednesday, the Dow rose 187 points or 1.52% to 12,453.

The S&P 500 added 1.35% and the Nasdaq advanced 2.10%.

Asia Markets

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.3% Thursday.

Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.82%; China's Shanghai composite index added 0.65%; Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index climbed 1.13% and the Bombay Stock Exchange's Sensex index increased 0.78% in Mumbai.
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