But Thailand's benchmark 100 percent B grade white rice was unlikely to go anywhere near the record high of $1,080 PMT seen in mid-2008, senior IRRI economist Samarendu Mohanty said, expecting the high next year to be near $600. Mohanty forecast total 2010/11-world rice production at 450 million MT of milled rice, down from a previous forecast of 460 million MT, saying that should support prices in 2011.
Meanwhile, the Indian government could allow export of some non-basmati rice on a case-by-case basis next year, but the combined amount could be below 3 million MT, which would have a minimal impact on the world market, said the report.
After weeks on conflicting reports emerging out of India on the possible relaxation to the ongoing rice export ban, the government of India has finally rejected a proposal to allow exports of non-basmati, or common-grade, rice as the government doesn't want local stocks to weaken before it finalizes a food security law.
The government of India is moving cautiously on any decision on exports as it is in the process of formulating the food security law that envisages widening the supply of subsidized wheat and rice to the poor. Private traders in India have been asking the government to allow exports of superior non-basmati rice that has a global demand, especially from Indians settled abroad.
India expects its summer rice output to rise 5.9% from a year earlier to 80.41 million MT in 2010-11 crop year through June due to higher plantings. The estimates had fuelled hopes that the country could resume exports.
Meanwhile, the Rice Exporters Association of Pakistan, REAP, have announced that total rice exports from Pakistan have crossed 1.5 million MT mark amounting to $0.82 billion during July 2010 to December 12, 2010.
REAP officials also announced that it has been maintaining the earlier trend and exporters were quite hopeful that the export of rice from Pakistan will achieve its target.
As of January 2010, planting of paddy crops was already well advanced in southern hemisphere countries. In South America, however, the season opened negatively due to drought or excessive rainfall that have delayed sowing of the main crops. It is also feared that drought related to El Nino may decrease rice production in Indonesia. Australia is expected to show an increase in rice production though its output would remain below the highs of the early-2000s. The rice production outlook is uncertain in southern African countries in view of the January and March cyclone period there.
World trade in rice in 2010 is predicted to recover slightly to 30.5 million tonnes. This increase is supported by a strong import demand from Asian countries, especially the Philippines.
Purchases by Brazil and the United States might also rise, while deliveries to African countries could diminish. The 2010 trade recovery would be sustained by increased rice exports by Thailand which and also by China, Myanmar and Vietnam, compensating for reduced shipments from Cambodia, the United States and Uruguay. Indian stocks, however, would not be available to the international market but will provide relief to the Indian domestic rice market as the country doesn't need to turn to import in the near future. For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today
No comments:
Post a Comment