Thursday, March 10, 2011

Commodities summary Oil prices industrian metals outlook

Commodities summary Oil prices industrian metals outlook :

ENERGY

Oil prices tumbled nearly three per cent on Thursday before recovering on reports that Saudi police opened fire at a rally in the eastern part of the country.

Benchmark West Texas Intermediate for April delivery fell below $101 on weak economic news from the US and China, but rallied back quickly after the report from Saudi Arabia. When markets settled, benchmark crude was $1.68 lower at $US102.70 per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Oil fell as low as $100.62 Thursday morning, the lowest price in a week. The reaction to the Saudi development shows how sensitive the market is at the moment to news from the Middle East.

The US is consuming more gasoline than a year ago, even though the price has jumped 50 cents per gallon in just three months. But consultants who track spending on gasoline say Americans may finally be pulling back.

The economic news Thursday helped fuel the earlier oil sell-off. China, which is expected to drive oil demand for years to come, reported overnight that surging oil and commodity prices produced a surprising trade deficit of $US7.3 billion ($A7.24 billion) for February. And the US Labor Department reported that the number of people seeking unemployment benefits rose last week.

The US dollar also gained against other major currencies. Oil, which is priced in dollars, tends to fall as the greenback rises and makes barrels more expensive for buyers holding foreign currency.

PRECIOUS METALS

Gold pared losses on Thursday as safe-haven buying increased after reports from Saudi Arabia said police had fired upon protesters.

Spot gold fell as low as $1,402.72 an ounce, a two-week low, and was later down 1.1 per cent at $1,413.10 an ounce by 2:15 pm EST (1915 GMT). US gold futures for April delivery settled down 1.2 per cent to $1,412.50.

Reuters witnesses said that Saudi police dispersed a protest by a Shi'ite minority in the OPEC member's oil-producing Eastern province. Shots were also heard in the Eastern province, witnesses said.

Gold often spikes in response in times of political and economic uncertainty because the metal's intrinsic value is unaffected by fiat currencies.

Earlier, bullion retreated from its record high of $1,444.40 an ounce set earlier this week, as a cross-asset sell-off accelerated on Thursday. Both Wall Street and oil fell sharply after an unexpected Chinese trade deficit and renewed euro zone debt jitters fuelled global growth concerns.

INDUSTRIAL METALS

Copper ended down for a second straight session on Thursday after surprisingly soft Chinese trade data underscored global growth concerns, already stinging from rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions.

London Metal Exchange (LME) copper for three-months delivery shed $84 to close at $9,191 a tonne.

COMEX May copper settled down 1.50 cent at $4.1975 per lb.

The London and New York markets stand about 10 per cent lower than record highs hit last April at $10,190 per tonne and $4.6575 per lb, respectively.

Data also showed a significant slowdown in imports, with inbound shipments of unwrought and semi-finished copper products off 35.4 per cent from January.

Chinese imports of copper scrap amounted to only 250,000 tonnes in February, down 30.6 per cent from the prior month, as consumers there continued to baulk at higher US prices.

US data added to the negative mood. New US claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, but remained at levels suggesting a labour market recovery is intact.

A higher US dollar managed to push oil lower, but Brent crude futures climbed back into positive territory and US crude prices pared losses after reports from Saudi Arabia said police had fired upon protesters.

The long-term outlook for copper remained positive due to a production deficit forecast for 2011, but demand for the metal in the spot market is sluggish.

Although LME copper inventories fell 250 tonnes to 425,475 tonnes, they are still about 20 per cent up from December 2010.

Copper's forward curve was in a $18.50 contango - discount for cash over three-month material - compared with a $70 backwardation - premium for cash over three-month material - in December.
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