U.S. farmers have started harvesting corn and soybeans at a brisk pace this year, which is adding seasonal pressure to prices, which jumped to all-time highs this summer as the worst drought in half a century ravaged crops across the U.S. Midwest.
The losses in corn and soybean markets are likely to be capped by extremely tight supplies that will face buyers until South American crops hit the market in March and April.
The wheat market is likely to find support from depleting stocks in Russia, the world's fourth largest exporter, after aggressive sales from its drought-hit harvest, and dryness hurting crops in Australia, the No. 2 exporter.
Bloomberg surveyed corn, soybeans prices next week sept 24-28 2012
Twelve of 28 people surveyed anticipate lower corn prices next week and nine were bullish, while 12 of 29 said soybeans will drop and 11 predicted gains. Corn jumped 16 percent to $7.4875 a bushel in Chicago this year and reached a record $8.49 on Aug. 10 as the worst U.S. drought in a half century damaged crops. Soybeans set an all-time high on Sept. 4 and are up 34 percent this year at $16.215 a bushel.
The market is also watching corn and soybean planting conditions in South America, where production is expected to replenish global supplies in early 2013. Any production issues in Brazil and Argentina could provide a fresh bullish momentum to the markets.
Argentina's 2012/13 corn season, which many analysts think could yield a record harvest, has got off to a good start as moist fields spur seeding, the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said.
Argentina is the world's second-biggest supplier of corn after the United States and ideal sowing conditions and high global prices have revived farmer interest in growing the grain.
The wheat market is likely to find support from adverse weather threatening crops in Australia and lower supplies from Russia.
The winter wheat crop in the southern U.S. Plains needs rain to establish itself, and conditions are dry in Australian wheat-producing areas.
Russia's grain exports will start to decline in October as stocks are falling quickly, supporting domestic prices and increasing the possibility of import from its ex-Soviet neighbours, SovEcon agricultural analysts said.
In September Russia is expected to export 3.0 milliion to 3.1 million tonnes of grain, including flour equivalent and legumes, up from 2.9 million tonnes seen in August, according to SovEcon.
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