March Nybot Arabica coffee prices corrected further downward

March Nybot Arabica coffee prices corrected further downward : March Nybot Arabica coffee prices corrected further downward to a 4-month low from December’s 1-1/2 yr high. Bearish factors include (1) dollar strength, which undercuts most commodities, and (2) the prediction from Brazil’s Agriculture Ministry that Brazil’s coffee output this year may rise to between 48 mln and 50 mln bags.

Bullish factors include
(1) ICO’s prediction that world coffee supply will fall short of demand in the 2009-10 season by 6-7 mln bags,
(2) the USDA’s cut in its 2009-10 global coffee production and ending stocks estimates, and
(3) Brazil’s coffee harvest this year falling to 39.47 mln bags, -14% y/y.

Large specs as of Feb 2 cut their large to a now moderate long position of 20,206. USDA coffee summary: 2009-10 world coffee production 125.2 mln bags (-3.7% vs 2008-09’s 130 mln bags); 2009-10 world ending stocks at 34.69 mln bags (-15% vs 2008-09’s 40.96 mln bags). For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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