Brazil’s Coffee Production Forecast 2011 - coffee prices today

Brazil’s Coffee Production Forecast 2011 - coffee prices today ; ust when things were moving along very well in Brazil, the biggest producer of coffee, some dry weather may put a damper on their success. Forecasters are predicting the driest weather the country has experienced in the past four years.

The dry weather comes at a time when trees begin flowering for next year’s crop. It would decrease the number of beans produced by trees. A manager at Cooxupe (the largest coffee cooperation in Brazil) Joaquim Goulart said, “Humidity is at rock-bottom levels. That is likely to hurt flowering and therefore the amount of beans available for the next year.”

Brazil holding its coffee for even higher price
Brazil, the world's biggest coffee producer, is holding out for even higher prices before releasing stocks the government amassed a year ago, the country's top coffee official told Reuters in comments that could lend fresh support to the biggest rally in 14 years. The per capita consumption of roasted coffee in Brazil reached the historic level of 4.81 kg in 2010, exceeding the 1965 record, according to Brazil's coffee industry association (Abic). The per capita consumption of 4.81 kg is equivalent to almost 81 liters of coffee per person per year. Read More...

Upward Revision To 2011 Price Forecast
The supportive fundamental dynamics we have highlighted came dramatically to the fore in recent months and buoyed prices beyond even our expectations, which were already more bullish than consensus. As a result, while trading will likely remain volatile in the short-to-medium term, we have taken the opportunity to raise our price forecasts for both 2010 and 2011. We now forecast an average of USc155/lb in 2010 and USc165/lb in 2011, up from our previous forecasts of USc145/lb and USc150/lb, respectively. The 'up' year in Brazilian production appears to have done little to alleviate tightness in the global Arabica market. Read More...

Shift north helps Brazil cut coffee harvest swings
Brazil's production of arabica beans plunged by 60% to 9,000 bags in the frost-hit 1976-77 season, sending New York futures above 330 cents a pound. Brazil faces an "off" season in 2011-12, although official forecasters have predicted a crop of 41.9m-44.7m bags, higher than that in many "on" years. Nonetheless, information group CoffeeNetwork on Friday forecast that world coffee production would, at 131m bags, fall 4m bags behind consumption.Read More...

Stock and commodities markets 2011-2012 coffee crop may shrink
Brazil, biggest exporter of Latin America, expects its coffee crop to decline by 13%. One of the reasons for that is the biennial cycle of the low productivity of coffee plants. Nevertheless, this year Brazil expects to harvest the biggest crop for a low-productivity season. It is preliminary estimated at 42-44 million bushels. In 2010 Brazil’s coffee crop was 48,1M bushels.

The cumulative export of the other coffee-exporting countries of Latin America gained 22.5% over Q4 2010 as compared to the same period of 2009.In October-December 2010 the coffee exports from the Dominican Republic, Mexico, Columbia, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, Salvador and Peru made up 5,405 million bushels.
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Brazil May Put Brakes on On/Off' Coffee Cycle
Changes in Brazilian coffee production may diminish the country's cycle of alternate low and high bean production years, blamed for imposing extra volatility and costs on the industry worldwide. P&A Marketing said that the relatively strong Brazilian coffee crop forecast for 2011-12 may set a trend of diminishing swings in an on-off cycle which, given the country's top rank in world production, has a major impact on global supplies. According to AgriMoney, the world deficit has averaged 5.4m bags in the last three "off" seasons, on Rabobank estimates.
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