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Tuesday, January 4, 2011

How the UK compares with the rest of the world

How the UK compares with the rest of the world ; UK manufacturing expanded at its fastest pace in 16 years in December as exports drove new orders. But how does Britain fare against its global counterparts? Here's a snapshot. Monthly purchasing managers’ indices (PMIs) measure economic performance through a number of sub-indices including manufacturing production, new orders, raw material inventories, employment and delivery figures.

Although different countries calculate PMIs using slightly different measures, the consensus is that a reading of above 50 suggests expansion, while one below 50 indicates a contraction. UK manufacturing activity last month grew at its fastest pace since 1994 as exports drove new orders, taking the PMI to 58.3.

JP Morgan’s Global Manufacturing PMI currently stands at a six-month high of 55 in December, and has remained above the 50.0 “no-change” mark throughout the last 18 months.

JP Morgan said manufacturing production increased for the 19th month running in December, with the pace of expansion the fastest since June.

Defying the gloom, it also said the average rate of growth during 2010 as a whole was the quickest since 2004 and the second-sharpest since the series began in 1998.

The US, which JP Morgan says contributes to 28.8pc of global GDP led the way on Monday as it reported economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in December for the 17th consecutive month, and the overall economy grew for the 20th consecutive month.

The Institute of Supply Management’s purchasing manager’s index rose to 57 from 56.6 in November, slightly below the 57.2 expected by analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.

December showed that orders and production of clothing and leather goods saw a rise, while paper production and furniture related orders saw a decrease in activity.

Japan, which produces 12.8pc of global GDP, tells a rather different story. The country reported a moderate decline in manufacturing production in December, with the fastest fall in new export orders for 20 months.

However, the contraction as a whole slowed from 47.3 in November to to 48.3 in December. China continues its rapid economic expansion, and now produces 6.5pc of global GDP, although its rate of growth is slowing.

The headline seasonally adjusted HSBC Purchasing’ Managers Index fell to a three-month low of 54.4 in December, from 55.3 in November. China's fourth quarter growth was still the strongest since Q1 2010.

The eurozone is currently a tale of two economies. As a group, the eurozone's PMI is at an eight-month high of 57.1 in December, with Germany, France, Austria and the Netherlands the strongest performers at the end of 2010.

Germany, which has been singled out as propping up some of its neighbours, enjoyed strong growth in 2010, with the sharpest rate of jobs growth since the survey began in April 1996 reported in December.

Sharper rises in production and incoming new work contributed to the fastest pace of job creation in almost 15 years of data collection, with the Markit/BME Germany Purchasing Managers’ Index measuring 60.7 in December, up from 58.1 in November.

Greece on the other hand, saw a contraction in new orders in December that was its sharpest for 21 months, as domestic demand remained lacklustre and new export orders fell markedly, having broadly stabilised in November.

Greece's PMI slipped slightly to 43.1 in December, from 43.9 in November. The latest reading was the lowest since August and signalled another substantial decline in the health of Greece's manufacturing industry.

Brazil's December data pointed to a more promising end to the year for Brazilian manufacturers, as output and employment expanded at faster rates and new orders grew for the first time in five months.

The country's PMI registered above the no-change mark of 50.0 in December for the first time in three months at 52.4, up from 49.9 in November. However, the latest reading remained below the series’ 12 month average.
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