Manila-based bank was reminded that there are downside risks in the second semester, such as uncertainties in the global economy, domestic demand is predicted difficult, massive capital flows and exchange rate fluctuations.
"With the situation, outlook for 2011 growth in Asian developing country group we maintain at the level of 7.3%," wrote the special economic assessment report as specified in the ADB's official website, today.
Asian developing country group consists of 45 countries covering the regions of Central Asia, East Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia (ASEAN) and the Pacific. Earlier in the Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2010 edition of April, the economic rate of this group of countries is estimated at 7.5%.
At the same time, ADB also encourages emerging East Asia to stop the fiscal stimulus and monetary policy because the economic recovery in the region has been strengthened.
Recommendation was listed in ADB's report entitled Asia Economic Monitor (AEM). Group of emerging East Asia consists of 10 Asean countries, China, Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan.
Economic growth in the country for the group this year is estimated at 8.1% or better than projections made in the ADB's Asian Development Outlook 2010 edition of April amounted to 7.7%. For 2011, the economy still estimated to grow 7.2%.
"Most of the emerging East Asia have entered the recovery of such a sharp V curve this year. But too early to say that it signifies the victory V curves [out of the crisis]," said Srinivasa Madhur, Senior Director of ADB's Office of Regional Economic Integration. China's economy this year is predicted to grow 9.6%. Policy to avoid overheating is expected to affect growth in 2011 to weaken to a level 9.1%.
Once hit by the global crisis in early 2009, newly industrialized countries such as Hong Kong, South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan are expected to record economic growth of 6.2% in 2010, then weakened to 4.5% in 2011. "With Singapore's economic projections 12.5% [this year], groups of nations would benefit from the recovery of investment and high export growth."
Asean Economy in 2010 is estimated at 6.7% rode along with improvements in various key indicators with a strong industrial production growth and increased consumer confidence.
In South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Taiwan and Thailand, monetary tightening has been done and are advised to continue with an appropriate scale. "In Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam, the stimulus should be withdrawn immediately."
Rosady T.A. Montol, an economist at PT BNI Tbk, assess the countries in Asia do not need to rush attractive fiscal and monetary policy stimulus. He guessed that the ADB proposal to withdraw the policy was one of them for fear of the threat of inflation, it is suggested raising interest rates.
"The problem is, we still need the stimulus of interest rates. Now therefore, if not raise rates, the investment will go into emerging markets. Because what happens now, investors will find the output of at least moderate. If Europe and the U.S., horrified. So the choice to commodity markets or emerging markets For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today
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