European Stock Market Forecast 2013 : coming up Italian and German elections could spark more volatility in the eurozone that could spill over and affect the British economy. "The eurozone debt crisis is likely to remain a significant risk for the UK economy in 2013. progress had been made in Europe but to bring the crisis to a close there needed to be significant reform, such as lower labour costs in countries on the periphery of the eurozone.
Economically, the EU is on track. The key risks are political – it will be important to keep the Greek government in power and prevent major shifts in policy in Spain and Italy. Provided that political risks can be contained, Spain and Italy may not need assistance from the European Central Bank in 2013.
European economic outlook 2013
The economic performance globally and especially in Europe will remain weak in 2013, according to Austrian banking group Erste, which owns Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR). The outlook for 2013 from Erste Group’s research department asks if 2013 will be lucky for the global economy. The answer, for Europe at least, appears to be no.
The report, published December 27, judges that Europe’s economies have been “burdened by, and become more susceptible to, economic setbacks.” High levels of government debt are picked out as a problem and ongoing austerity measures, which the Erste report prefixes as “necessary,” will prevent booms in European economies. More moderate expected growth in the big emerging markets in India and China is also given as a negative factor for Europe.
Top line growth in the corporate sector will be limited in 2013, according to Erste Group, with ongoing low demand a major factor. “We believe that enterprises will continue their defensive balance sheet strategies,” reads the Erste report. Limited expansion and release of new products are also predicted for 2013.
High eurozone unemployment is attributed to countries such as Spain and Italy experiencing higher levels of unemployment than expected. This will reduce inflation in 2013 due to the lower demand and wage expectations/rises resulting from high unemployment. “Based on our expectations for unemployment, we project inflation at 1.7 percent for 2013 and 1.3 percent for 2014 [in the eurozone].”
Erste Group picks out two points for Central and Eastern Europe; Croatia’s EU accession in 2013 and the region’s car manufacturing sector outperforming the rest of Europe. Although the timing makes Croatia’s accession less economically promising than when Romania joined, Erste Group still expects significant economic growth for the country and it will be an extra Balkan region member of the common market, which should open at least some trading opportunities. Erste Group estimates that Croatia should be able to draw up to 2.5 percent of GDP in EU funds over the 2014 – 2020 period.
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The economic performance globally and especially in Europe will remain weak in 2013, according to Austrian banking group Erste, which owns Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR). The outlook for 2013 from Erste Group’s research department asks if 2013 will be lucky for the global economy. The answer, for Europe at least, appears to be no.
The report, published December 27, judges that Europe’s economies have been “burdened by, and become more susceptible to, economic setbacks.” High levels of government debt are picked out as a problem and ongoing austerity measures, which the Erste report prefixes as “necessary,” will prevent booms in European economies. More moderate expected growth in the big emerging markets in India and China is also given as a negative factor for Europe.
Top line growth in the corporate sector will be limited in 2013, according to Erste Group, with ongoing low demand a major factor. “We believe that enterprises will continue their defensive balance sheet strategies,” reads the Erste report. Limited expansion and release of new products are also predicted for 2013.
High eurozone unemployment is attributed to countries such as Spain and Italy experiencing higher levels of unemployment than expected. This will reduce inflation in 2013 due to the lower demand and wage expectations/rises resulting from high unemployment. “Based on our expectations for unemployment, we project inflation at 1.7 percent for 2013 and 1.3 percent for 2014 [in the eurozone].”
Erste Group picks out two points for Central and Eastern Europe; Croatia’s EU accession in 2013 and the region’s car manufacturing sector outperforming the rest of Europe. Although the timing makes Croatia’s accession less economically promising than when Romania joined, Erste Group still expects significant economic growth for the country and it will be an extra Balkan region member of the common market, which should open at least some trading opportunities. Erste Group estimates that Croatia should be able to draw up to 2.5 percent of GDP in EU funds over the 2014 – 2020 period.
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