Saturday, September 1, 2012

Gold prices forecast 3-7 september 2012

Gold prices forecast 3-7 september 2012, gold prices september 2012, silver prices, metal prices sept 2012, Kitco News Gold Survey next week 3-7 sept 2012. : Metals prices rose Friday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke suggested more quantitative easing might help bring down unemployment, but now the markets look to another central bank, the U.S. monthly jobs report and China’s economic data for direction next week.

Prices were up on the day and the week. The most-active December gold contract on the Comex division of the Nymex settled at $1,687.60 an ounce on Friday, up 0.88% on the week. December silver settled at $31.442 an ounce on Friday, up 2.4% on the week. On the month, December gold rose 4.5% and silver gained 12.3%.

U.S. and Canadian markets are closed Monday for the Labor Day holiday.

In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those 24 participants, 15 see prices up, while six see prices down, and three are neutral or see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.

At a Fed symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyo., Bernanke said quantitative easing can do more to help the struggling job market and said he’s open to another round of easing, but did not say when that would occur. Metals prices rallied after the comments. Read Fed Bernanke speech in jackson hole 8-31-2012

Market watchers said now with Bernanke’s appearance done, attention will now be on the European Central Bank meeting, the U.S. August nonfarm payrolls report and Chinese economic data.

The ECB meets Thursday to discuss monetary policy and market participants are waiting to see if the bond-buying program announced earlier in August by ECB President Mario Draghi will occur. Andy Busch, global currency and public policy strategist at BMO Capital Markets, said Draghi will either start buying bonds, which will lift markets, or he will wait for an official bailout request, which will cause market prices to fall.

If eurozone gross domestic product data on Thursday shows the economy contracted, that could spur the ECB to act,

Friday brings the August nonfarm payrolls report. Bernanke’s Friday comment about the “stagnation of the labor market” makes the jobs report significant. The July data showed 163,000 new jobs were created and market participants will watch to see if that sort of growth is maintained. Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch call for August payrolls to have risen by 120,000 and the unemployment rate to tick down to 8.2%.

“If there is a big miss to the downside, the market will aggressively price in a large QE for the Sept. 13 FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. If the data is better than expected, the market will slowly price out the QE3,

Several Chinese economic data releases are slated for the week, starting Saturday, with NBS Manufacturing PMI. On Sept. 9, inflation data, industrial production, trade balance and retail sales are expected. Barclays Capital said if the data comes out weaker than expected, especially if inflation is higher than anticipated, it could signal further evidence of slowing economic activity and that would weigh on global growth prospects and risky assets.

China is really what market participants should watch next week .

“Their economy doesn’t look healthy. I can see a slide by them into the end of the year. If China’s economy sinks, that’s bearish gold. I know people are looking for gold to rally into the end of the year and people have gotten long gold and silver, but I don’t see the demand there. If China’s economy weakens, there’s no inflation because people can’t buy anything,

China's official factory purchasing managers' index fell to a lower-than-expected 49.2 in August from 50.1 in July, official data showed on Saturday, in a result that is likely to strengthen the case for further policy steps to bolster growth.

The official PMI dipped below 50, which demarcates expansion from contraction, for the first time since November 2011, in the latest sign that the world's second-biggest economy is struggling against global headwinds.

Barclay’s analysts said outside of the U.S., the global economy is slowing. “The immediate risk, it seems to us, is not that the bottom falls out of the world economy in coming weeks, or that investors suddenly become convinced that it will. The more plausible risk is that, in providing yet another thing for investors to worry about and undermining global recovery as a source of support for market sentiment, the weaker economic outlook may create a more precarious backdrop for the policy event risk that looms large in the months to come,

gold futures prices prediction weekly sept 3-7 2012
On the week, gold futures added 1.25%, the second consecutive weekly gain. In August, gold futures rose 4.5%, the largest monthly gain since January.

Gold futures were likely to find support at USD1,634.55 a troy ounce, the low from August 22 and near-term resistance at USD1,699.55, the high from March 27.

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