Analysts had expected initial jobless claims to rise to 370,000 last week.
Later in the day, the U.S. was to release government data on factory orders.
Investors are anxiously awaiting the non farm payrolls and ISM non manufacturing index from the U.S. on Friday.
An interesting side note is that the high estimate comes from Soc Gen. They hint at having an edge, saying that a seasonal adjust quirk tends to boost July jobs in years when June has 5 Fridays.
They also cite the positive trend in initial jobless claims and note that July results can be unusually volatile.
Non-Farm Payrolls Preview
- Median estimate 100K (110K private)
- June reading: 80K
- High est 165K
- Low est 50K
- NFP 6-month avg 150K (but 3 month avg just 75K)
- Unemployment rate est. unchanged at 8.2%
- ADP 163K vs 172K prior (120K exp)
- Jobless claims 4-week avg 365.5K vs 386K last month
- ISM manufacturing employment 52.0 vs 56.6 prior (6-month avg 55.4)
- ISM non-manufacturing employment (not yet released)
- Challenger job cuts down 1.9% compared to June
- TrimTabs estimate based withheld income and employment taxes 115K
- Monster June employment index 4.1 vs 0.7 prior
- Consumer Confidence labor index -33.0 vs -32.9 prior
- Philly Fed employment: -8.4 vs +1.8 prior
- Chicago PMI employment: 53.3 vs 60.4 prior
- Initial jobless claims 4-wk moving avg: 385K vs 378.5K at the time of the May jobs report
- Conference Board’s Help Wanted OnLine (HWOL) Index: +4793K vs +4718K six-month avg
- May JOLTS job openings: 3642 vs 3568 prior
- The past 4 reports have all been weaker than expected but before that, the prior 8 were better than expected (after revisions).
- An interesting side note is that the high estimate comes from Soc Gen. They hint at having an edge, saying that a seasonal adjust quirk tends to boost July jobs in years when June has 5 Fridays.
- They also cite the positive trend in initial jobless claims and note that July results can be unusually volatile.
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