Comex gold futures prices are slightly lower in early U.S. trading Friday, as the dog days of summer keep the market place subdued. The key “outside markets” are in a mildly bearish posture for the precious metals Friday morning, as the U.S. dollar index is firmer and crude oil prices are weaker. December gold last traded down $3.20 at $1,616.00 an ounce. Spot gold was last quoted down $1.40 an ounce at $1,613.75. September Comex silver last traded down $0.087 at $28.13 an ounce.
The U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading Friday. The greenback is seeing choppy trading action recently, but the bulls maintain the overall near-term technical advantage. Meantime, crude oil prices are weaker Friday morning. Oil bulls still have upside near-term technical momentum as prices hit a fresh three-month high on Thursday. The precious metals markets will continue to look closely at how these two key “outside markets” trade on a daily basis.
Technically, gold bulls and bears are still on a level near-term technical playing field as prices are trapped in the middle of a well-defined, choppy and sideways trading range. The direction in which prices “break out” of that trading range on the daily chart will likely be the direction of the next trending price move in gold. The gold bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at the June high of $1,646.40. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is closing prices below solid technical support at the July low of $1,559.50. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $1,622.00 and then at this week’s high of $1,628.20. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $1,603.00 and then at $1,600.00.
September silver futures bears still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, amid choppy and sideways trading for the past two months. Bulls’ next upside price breakout objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the July high of $28.445 an ounce. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the August low of $26.88. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $28.265 and then at the August high of $28.315. Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $27.66 and then at this week’s low of $27.43.
Bloomberg surveyed expect gold prices next week 20-25 2012
Fourteen of 26 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expect prices to rise next week and six were bearish. A further six were neutral, making the proportion of bulls the highest since July 6. Paulson raised his stake in the SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest gold-backed exchange-traded product, by 26 percent in the second quarter and Soros more than doubled his holding, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission filings showed Aug. 14. Global holdings reached a record on Aug. 10, data compiled by Bloomberg show.
In Kitco News Survey gold prices next week 20-25 2012
In the Kitco News Gold Survey, out of 33 participants, 28 responded this week. Of those 28 participants, 16 see prices up, while three see prices down, and nine are neutral or see prices moving sideways. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders, money managers and technical-chart analysts.
A slim majority of participants in the Kitco News Gold Survey are expecting higher prices next week, but a good number of respondents said there is no reason for the market to push out of its current trading range.
Sources who see higher gold prices next week said they expect gold to start to get ready to break out of its August doldrums and try to retest the upper end of resistance at $1,626-30. looking at Comex gold futures, the most-active December contract “is nearing a breakout of its four-week high of $1,633.30. Also, the U.S. dollar index is in position to turn lower again.”
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