stock markets prediction next week april 16-20 2012

stock markets prediction next week april 16-20 2012 : Concern that Spain could default on its debt may negate what should be a decent week for earnings. Companies reporting include Coca-Cola, Citigroup, IBM, Intel, Kimberly-Clark, Microsoft and GE. Also due is the March report on housing starts. Sooner or later, Europe was going to emerge again as a problem for markets around the world.

This past week was the week, and the coming week's market performance may well depend on how investors view the conditions in Spain and Italy. The big day will be Thursday, when Spain is to auction 2- and 10-year bonds. A bad auction -- producing a high yield or too little demand to sell the entire issue -- could slam markets around the world.

The auction will come as 11 components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU -1.05%) and such heavyweights as Goldman Sachs (GS -4.40%), Morgan Stanley (MS -5.16%) Qualcomm (QCOM -2.43%) and Union Pacific (UNP -0.70%) will report earnings. Read Earning report next week april 16-20 2012

In addition, important reports are due on retail sales and housing. And Thursday's weekly report on initial jobless claims will get close scrutiny after the claims rate bumped up in the latest week.

The bottom line: The week ahead will be busy. It has the potential to be stomach-churning. And it will come after stocks suffered their worst weekly performance of the year and their second weekly loss in a row. The Dow lost 1.6%, with the Standard & Poor's 500 Index ($INX -1.25%) down 2% and the Nasdaq Composite Index ($COMPX -1.45%) fell 2.3%.

Below are entries on the economic calendar, where all listed times are Eastern Daylight Time:

Economic calender Monday april 16 2012

8:30 a.m. -- Retail sales for March. Economists expect the headline figure to advance 0.3 percent after a 1.1 percent increase in February. Although prices have been firm, auto sales weakened last month, which should act as a drag. Excluding autos, retail sales should increase 0.6 percent. Gasoline prices have continued to rise over March.

8:30 a.m. -- The Empire State Manufacturing Survey's general business conditions index is expected to moderately slip to 18.0 in April from 20.2 in March, following six straight months of gains.

9 a.m. -- February net long-term Treasury International Capital flows and foreign buying of U.S. Treasury bonds.

10 a.m. -- National Association of Home Builders housing market index.

10 a.m. -- April business inventories.

12:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Sandra Pianalto (an FOMC voter this year) speaks on "Banking and Economic Outlook" before the "A Day With the Commissioner" event in Lexington, Ky.

3:30 p.m. -- Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis President James Bullard (an FOMC nonvoter this year) speaks on "The U.S. Economy and Monetary Policy" at the George Eccles Memorial Lecture at Utah State University's Jon M. Huntsman School of Business.

Non-U.S.:

U.K. -- Consumer confidence index.

Euro zone -- February trade balance.

Economic calender Tuesday 17 2012

8:30 a.m. -- Housing starts are likely to increase to 705,000 in March from 698,000 in February. Building permits were up in February, which should translate into more housing starts. Because of the pickup in permits, economists expect single-family construction to edge higher, after falling nearly 10 percent in February. However, the underlying momentum in starts has come from multifamily construction, a trend that is expected to continue.

9:15 a.m. -- Industrial production is expected to expand 0.3 percent in March after coming in flat in February, taking the capacity utilization rate to 78.6 percent.

Non-U.S.:

U.K. - March consumer price index.

Euro zone -- March Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices .

Germany -- Center for European Economic Research's current situation survey for April.

Economic calender Wednesday april 18 2012

7 a.m. -- Mortgage Bankers Association mortgage index for the week ending April 14.

10:30 a.m. - Crude inventories for the week ending April 14.

Non-U.S.:

Japan -- March trade balance.

Euro zone -- European Central Bank current account for February.

U.K. -- March unemployment claimant count, International Labor Organization (ILO) unemployment rate, and average weekly earnings.

Economic calender Thursday april 19 2012

8:30 a.m. -- Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 14 are expected to drop to 370,000 from 380,000. Note that this claims report runs the same week the payroll survey is conducted.

10 a.m. -- Existing-home sales likely rose to 4.62 million in March from 4.59 million in February.

10 a.m. -- The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, or Philly Fed, index of current activity is expected to drop to 12.0 in April from 12.5 in March. That is consistent with a moderating pace of economic activity.

10 a.m. -- The Conference Board's leading economic index should increase 0.2 percent in March after advancing 0.7 percent in February.

Economic calender Friday april 20 2012

9 a.m. -- Group of 20 finance ministers and central bankers meet in Washington.

Non-U.S.:

Germany -- March producer price index.

Germany -- Ifo business climate/current assessment/expectations survey.

U.K. -- March retail sales.

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