Sunday, April 22, 2012

Newcastle Investment stock outlook 2012-2013

Newcastle Investment stock outlook 2012-2013, Newcastle EPS, NCT is expected to report an EPS : Newcastle Investment Corp (NCT) - Founded in 1998 and based in New York City, this diversified Real Estate Investment Trust [REIT] focuses on commercial real estate properties and senior unsecured notes issued by other property REITs. It also focuses on investments in various grades of mortgage loans and pools of mortgage loans.

Newcastle Investment Corp. Reports Unaudited Consolidated Earnings Results for the Fourth Quarter and Full Year Ended December 31, 2011


Newcastle Investment Corp. reported unaudited consolidated earnings results for the fourth quarter and full year ended December 31, 2011. For the quarter, the company's income available for common stockholders was $19,301,000 or $0.18 per basic and diluted share compared to income available for common stockholders of $196,986,000 or $3.18 per basic and diluted share for the same period a year ago.

Interest income was $73,557,000 against $74,957,000 a year ago. Net interest income after impairment was $16,724,000 against $69,027,000 a year ago. Income from continuing operations was $20,541,000 against $198,575,000 a year ago. Net interest income was $42,024,000 against $34,015,000 a year ago. Net cash provided by operating activities was $15,410,000 against $11,314,000 a year ago. As of December 31, 2011, GAAP book value was $1.24 per share, compared to $1.02 per share as of September 30, 2011.

For the year, the company’s income available for common stockholders was $253,867,000 or $3.09 per basic and diluted share against income available for common stockholders of $657,252,000 or $10.96 per basic and diluted share a year ago. Interest income was $292,296,000 against $300,272,000 a year ago. Net interest income was $154,261,000 against $128,053,000 a year ago. Net interest income after impairment was $153,584,000 against $368,911,000 a year ago. Income from continuing operations was $259,141,000 against $621,670,000 a year ago. Net cash provided by operating activities was $57,031,000 against $48,890,000 a year ago. GAAP book value was increased by $6.22 per share. As of December 31, 2011, GAAP book value was $1.24 per share, compared to negative book value of $4.98 per share as of December 31, 2010.


NCT is yielding 12.1% and currently trades at a P/E ratio of 2.1, that's right, it has a double digit yield and a single digit P/E fewer than 5. This stock is very attractive by the standards of many investors. The great thing about NCT is that it can act as an alternative to Annaly Capital (NLY) and Chimera Investment (CIM). Unlike Annaly and Chimera, the management is very strong, and since NCT has reinstated its dividend in 2011, the management has increased the distribution twice.

Average Earnings Estimates

Qtr (03/12) Qtr (06/12) FY (12/12) FY (12/13)
Average Estimate $0.32 $0.34 $1.34 $1.52
Number of Analysts 1 1 1 1
High Estimate $0.32 $0.34 $1.34 $1.52
Low Estimate $0.32 $0.34 $1.34 $1.52
Prior Year $1.73 $0.37 $1.44 $1.34
Growth Rate (Year over Year) -81.50% -8.11% -6.94% 13.43%

With earnings due out in mid-June, NCT is expected to report an EPS of $0.29/share on revenue of $75.1 million dollars for the March quarter. Investors should consider acquiring a position in NCT not only because of its yield, but because NCT should beat earnings handily this quarter, paving the way for what may be another increased distribution. Based on my estimates, NCT should report EPS of $0.32 - $0.37/share on revenue of $77.5 million or greater.

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