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Thursday, April 5, 2012

Canadian Gasoline prices prediction july 2012

Canadian Gasoline prices forecast july 2012, Average gas prices in canadian 2012 : Gasoline prices are up sharply in many parts of Canada and, while a hike Wednesday was less than some predicted, the consensus suggests it's just the beginning of increases heading into the summer.

"Normally gasoline prices start to retreat after the May 24 holiday weekend, but I can't see this happening this year," said analyst Roger McKnight of En-Pro International Inc.

"I can see this sticking right through the middle of July."

In Toronto, prices were up almost 3.4 cents a litre on Wednesday to an average of about $1.38 for regular gasoline, according to GasBuddy.com, a website that compiles data submitted by users across the country.

Elsewhere, the price spike was more modest.

In Quebec City, GasBuddy said prices were up less than half a cent at $1.41 per litre and they declined in Montreal by six-tenths of a cent to about $1.47 per litre.

Motorists were also taking it on the chin in Edmonton, with prices up four cents per litre to over $1.18, still the lowest price among major Canadian cities surveyed.

Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said gas prices "are a concern for everyone" and the shocks are not limited to Canada.

"People around the world are seeing oil prices go up, the Americans, the British, everybody is seeing the same phenomena. The reason for that, of course, is because the price of oil is a global price, it's not a national price," he told reporters in Vancouver.

"In terms of our own country, of course we export oil, so there's some benefit to Canada, it terms of prices going higher. But it's more difficult for all of us who buy gasoline at the pumps."

Historically, gas prices start to climb as a lead up to the Victoria Day holiday weekend in May, in anticipation for the annual surge in demand as more Canadians take road trips.

A changeover at North American refineries, which make different grades of fuel for the warm and cold seasons, also contributes to the annual spring price surge. However, this year the seasonal bump has come earlier than usual, though explaining why that is happening isn't simple.

"It's a complex industry with lots of moving parts," said Jason Parent, senior associate at energy consultancy firm the Kent Group. "Anything can happen in the meantime that can drive prices up or down."

Parent said he predicts gas prices will rise another eight cents per litre above current prices over the coming months. The price at the pump is influenced by numerous other factors, such as wholesale prices for crude oil and, to a lesser extent, markups by retailers.

On a daily basis, retail gas prices do not fall in lockstep with the reported price of crude because oil is typically sold in transactions ahead of time, known as futures contracts.

Instead, gas prices tend to reflect a trend in oil prices, Parent said. "If crude continues to go up, that's a larger component cost (for gas), and you'll see that reflected," he said.

Concerns about the threat of oil shortages as a result of a potential escalation of a conflict between the U.S. and oil-rich Iran have also added pressure to the price of crude.

However, the futures contract for May was down $2.54 to US$101.47 a barrel, and the lower price will likely work its way into the price of gas at the pumps eventually.

-- The Canadian Press

Pain at the pump - Average provincial price
Alberta $1.19
Manitoba $1.226
Saskatchewan $1.255
P.E.I. $1.34
B.C. $1.364
Ontario $1.364
New Brunswick $1.369
Quebec $1.433
Newfoundland $1.44
Nova Scotia $1.44

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