Durable goods orders, which will be released Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. ET, could be the most important release of the week, as markets are remain watchful for any indication of weakness in the nascent recovery.
The previous durable goods report was much worse than market expectations, posting the largest monthly drop in three years. This may have been an outlier, however, as core orders have been unusually weak in the first month of each quarter for the last few years.
March consumer confidence surveys from both the Conference Board and the University of Michigan will be released Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET and Friday at 9:55 a.m. ET, respectively. Consumer sentiment has strengthened over the past few months as national employment has improved, though this could be offset by rising gas prices.
Confidence surveys have also undershot improvements in consumption reports over the past few months, suggesting that the need for replacement purchases of big-ticket items such as cars and appliances has outweighed any lingering uncertainty about the economy.
The MNI Chicago purchasing manager's index will be released Friday at 9:45 a.m. ET. The report has a history of predicting movement in the Institute of Supply national ISM survey, which is itself a key indicator of GDP growth. Though it has ebbed back and forth, the index has held above 60 for the past four months and is expected to remain in that range in the latest report.
The week is also peppered with several other regional manufacturing surveys: the Dallas Federal Reserve survey Monday at 10:30 a.m. ET, the Richmond Federal Reserve survey Tuesday at 10:00 a.m. ET and the Kansas City Federal Reserve survey Thursday 11:00 a.m. ET.
Initial jobless claims, to be released Thursday 8:30 a.m. ET, fell below 350,000 in the previous report, posting the lowest level in over four years. Though this reading will likely be revised in the next week's report, claims data continue to hold steady near the 350,000 level, a range consistent with strong job growth.
Housing data will be limited to the Pending Home Sales Index, out Monday at 10:00 a.m. ET, and the S&P Case Shiller Home Price Index, to be released Tuesday at 9:00 a.m. ET. The S&P index has shown housing prices are still falling and are expected to drop again in January, a troubling sign for what otherwise appears to be the beginnings of a recovery in the market.
The third estimate for U.S. fourth quarter GDP is expected to show no change in either spending or the headline figure. It will be released Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
The February personal income and spending report, to be released Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show the third straight monthly rise in income, another bright spot in the recovery.
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will continue his series of lectures at George Washington University Tuesday and Thursday at 12:45 p.m. ET, which, although more of a public relations exercise, have provided some snippets of his thoughts regarding current monetary policy.
Bernanke will also deliver the opening speech at National Association for Business Economics in Arlington, Virginia at 08:00 a.m. ET Monday.
Other appearances by Federal Reserve officials include Philadelphia Fed President Plosser on monetary policy Monday at 7:30 a.m. ET in Paris and on the economic outlook Thursday at 1:00 p.m. ET in Wilmington Delaware.
Below is a list of appearances by other Fed officials in the week ahead:
March 27 2012 , Boston Federal Reserve Bank Pres. Eric Rosengren speaks to the National Institute for Economic and Social Research in London.
March 27 2012, 01:20 p.m. ET, Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Pres. Richard Fisher speaks to a community forum sponsored by his Bank, on "Federal Reserve Operations and Economic Update."
March 27 2012 , 09:00 p.m. ET, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard speaks to a monetary policy conference at Tsinghua University in Beijing.
March 29, 12:15 p.m. ET, Atlanta Federal Reserve Bank President Dennis Lockhart participates in a panel discussion at The Commerce Club on the subject, "The European economic crisis and how it affects you," in Atlanta.
March 29 06:45 p.m. ET, Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Jeffrey Lacker speaks to the UNC School of Law's Banking Institute.
March 31 06:30 p.m. ET, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank Pres. Narayana Kocherlakota speaks to the Midwest Economics Association in Evanston, Illinois.
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Initial jobless claims march 29 2012, Durable goods march 28 2012, consumer confidence march 2012, Dallas Federal Reserve survey Monday march 26 2012, Home Sales Index march 26 2012, Home Price Index march 27 2012, fed Bernanke speech march 26 2012. For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today
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