Japan's No.1 automaker now expects operating profit - earnings from its core operations - for the year to end-March of 270 billion yen ($3.5 billion), a drop of 42 percent from last year, and lagging a consensus forecast of 331 billion yen from 23 analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Toyota stock chart from 7/2/2011 to 6/2/2012The maker of the Camry sedan said it plans to roll out 19 new models in the U.S. as Toyota, outsold by General Motors Co. and Volkswagen AG last year, prepares to sell a record number of vehicles worldwide during 2012. Its resurgence signals GM, VW and Hyundai Motor Co. may cede back some of the market share they gained in 2011.
Analysts are even more optimistic than the Toyota City- based carmaker. Before the company raised its full-year net income forecast to 200 billion yen ($2.6 billion), the average of 20 estimates compiled by Bloomberg projected 285.4 billion yen. As recently as January, the average estimate was above 300 billion yen, even after the carmaker had slashed its projection to 180 billion yen in December.
For the third quarter ended Dec. 31, net income fell 14 percent to 80.9 billion yen, while revenue increased 4.1 percent to 4.87 trillion yen, Toyota said.
The recovery in 2012 -- described by Honda President Takanobu Ito as the year of the “complete rebound” -- is under way in the U.S. and Japan, Toyota’s two biggest markets. Sales in the U.S. rose 7.5 percent in January, led by the flagship Camry midsize sedan’s 56 percent jump, according to Autodata. At home, deliveries of Toyota passenger vehicles rose 46 percent last month, the biggest gain since April 2010, according to the Japan Automobile Dealers Association.
Toyota may regain market share from GM in the U.S. this year, according to a Bloomberg survey of five analysts. The Japanese carmaker may capture 13.8 percent of the market this year, compared with 12.9 percent last year, while GM may drop to 19 percent from 19.6 percent last year, according to the survey.
Toyota today raised its forecast for sales for the fiscal year to 7.41 million vehicles, compared with the previous projection for 7.38 million. Toyota on Feb. 3 forecast sales, including those of Hino Motors Ltd. and Daihatsu Motor Co., from January to December will climb to a record 9.58 million vehicles.
In Japan, Toyota’s second-largest market, the government began waiving some taxes and offering rebates for certified low- emission vehicles in December to help the domestic industry. The Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association said Dec. 20 that incentives will help domestic demand increase by 900,000 vehicles in 2012 after last year’s record drop.
During 2011, sales at Toyota -- excluding those at Daihatsu and Hino -- shrank 6.7 percent in the U.S. and declined 23 percent in Japan, contributing to Toyota losing its top spot in global annual vehicle sales to GM. Deliveries in China slowed to about 4 percent, the slowest growth since it officially entered the market in 2002, according to Shiori Hashimoto, a spokeswoman for the carmaker. Honda last week forecast a 12 percent drop in revenue.
Toyota rose as much as 1.8 percent to 30 euros in Frankfurt trading. The stock closed unchanged at 2,986 yen in Tokyo before the company reported earnings and raised its projections. For the latest updates on the stock market, visit Stock Market Today
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