Sunday, February 19, 2012

Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEI) outlook week feb 20- 24 2012

Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEI) outlook week feb 20- 24 2012 : The benchmark Philippine Stock Exchange Index (PSEI) rose to a record high on Friday to end the week up by 2.03 percent to 4,886.99 points on optimism over a vote on Greece’s second bailout plan this week.

Market drivers also came from a handful of domestic companies that started to release full-year 2011 earnings, with results either beating or staying at par with market expectations.

The All-Shares index also rose 1.91 percent to 3,284.31 points week-on-week while most subindices ended positive led by services, which rose 4.26 percent. Mining and oil ended lower by 0.18 percent on lingering concerns over proposed changes to the country’s mining policies.

Analysts said investors were more optimistic given positive signals from the eurozone.

“Toward the end of the week, the European central bank stated that it would swap its bonds for new ones to avoid losses on debt restructuring. This was seen as a good sign, as it could pave way for the private sector bond swap, which would take away 100 billion Euros from Greece’s debt,” AB Capital Securities Inc. said in its weekly report.

Philippine companies started filing their income reports for 2011, led by Ayala Land Inc., which said net income rose 31 percent to a record P7.14 billion with all segments posting higher earnings. Sister-firm Globe Telecom said net income was relatively flat at P10 billion from P9.8 billion the previous year.

Jollibee Foods Corp. closed 2011 with a net income of P3.21 billion, up just half a percent as the cost of raw materials cut into sales.

US stocks also ended the week strong with economic numbers pointing to continued recovery.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which is up 6 percent this year, gained 0.35 percent to 12,949.87 on Friday. The S&P 500 added 0.23 percent on Friday while the Nasdaq was lower by 0.27 percent.

This week: Analysts said the index would trade on a tight range this week. But with few local drivers expected the index’s direction would likely be determined by developments in Europe and the US.

“The German Ifo Business climate index will be released, the past results during the last three months have always beaten expectations, the previous reading yielded 108.3. The US will also release its weekly jobless claims, the previous results came in at 348,000,” AB Capital said.

Based on technical indicators, the Philippine index should trade between 4,848 and 4,852 with resistance seen at the 4,912 level. It said fundamental indicators showed that the index is “expensive” at current levels.

“From the technical viewpoint, the opening gap looks very bullish, especially after the index closed above the previous all time high at 4,756. Although it is important to note that the momentum indicators are still showing a bearish divergence,” AB Capital said.

Stocks to watch: Investors are still advised to acquire blue-chip stocks as well as those that could benefit from a rise in spending and the government’s massive Public-Private Partnership program should prices turn more attractive.

“We advise investors to wait for lower index levels before buying blue chip stocks, an entry at the current level poses a risk of trading loss,” AB Capital cautioned. For the latest updates on the stock market, visit Stock Market Today
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