House prices rose 0.4 percent month-on-month on a seasonally adjusted basis in November, the same rate of increase as in October and defying expectations for no change in the price level. House prices have remained surprisingly resilient in recent months despite the deterioration in the economic outlook, said Robert Gardner, chief economist at Nationwide.
"But with the UK economic recovery expected to remain sluggish well into 2012, house price growth is likely to remain soft, with prices moving sideways or drifting modestly lower over the next twelve months," he added.
The price of a typical home in the U.K. was GBP 165,798 in November, 1.6 percent higher than a year earlier. This compares to 0.8 percent growth in the preceding month and exceeded the 1.3 percent increase expected by economists.
Expert UK House Price Predictions 2012
Knight Frank predicted house prices in UK 2012
Knight Frank is predicting that average house prices across the UK will fall by 5 per cent in 2012 and won’t start growing until 2014 - albeit with small rises of 1 per cent in 2014 and 2 per cent in 2015.
Some parts of the UK will fare worse than others. Average prices in Wales are expected to drop by 6.7 per cent next year, while both the North East and Scotland will see falls of 5.9 per cent. London, South East, East Anglia and the East Midland are forecasted to do better than average UK values but will still see falls of between 3.7 per cent to 4.1 per cent.
Capital Economics Prediction for UK house prices in 2012? -5%
'We expect prices to decline by 5% in both 2012 and 2013.'
Jonathan Davis of Jonathan Davis Wealth Management Prediction for UK house prices in 2012? -7 to 12%
'Fall of 7 to 12%. This year will be down a couple or a few per cent but, in real terms, it will be down around 8%. Not insignificant at all.'
Regional forecasts?
'Next year, all regions will fall in price as all regions have already fallen in activity to some 40% of 2006 levels. It's a nonsense to say – as I hear every day – the London market is strong.’
Hamptons Prediction for UK house prices in 2012? -2%
Regional forecasts? 0% in the south of England; 1% in London; 4% in prime London
IHS Global Insight Prediction for UK house prices in 2012? -5%
Howard Archer, chief UK and Europe economist at IHS Global Insight, forecasts, 'House prices will fall by around 5% overall from current levels by mid-2012 as weak economic fundamentals outweigh extended low interest rates.'
Henry Pryor Prediction for UK house prices in 2012? -10%
'Whilst asking prices stubbornly refuse to acknowledge the reality of what is happening in the market (they remain close to their all time highs reached in April 2008) sale prices recorded by HM Land Registry marks prices down 12% since their peak in January that same year. In 2012, I expect asking prices to slide, but average sale prices for many will tumble. Nationally, they will be 7% lower but remember that with inflation (falling during the year) at say 3% this means they will be down by around 10% by the end of the year in real terms.'
Regional forecasts? 'Whilst London has escaped the ravages suffered by the rest of the country even the prosperous south east will stall in 2012. I expect prices in prime central London (Mayfair on the Monopoly board) to slip 2%. Northern Ireland will continue to suffer as will the north east and Wales, but the largest pain may be reserved for the south west where price could fall by as much as 10%.'
Hometrack Prediction for UK house prices in 2012? -2%
Neil Monnery, author of Safe as Houses, A Historical Analysis of Property Prices Prediction for UK house prices in 2012?
'One of the lessons from the Safe as Houses research is that it is very hard to do house price predictions, particularly over short time periods. My guess would be that if interest rates remain low, then house prices will be flat or slightly down in nominal terms, and more significantly down in real terms as they move back to the long term trends. If interest rates rise to "normal" levels (say 2% above inflation), I would expect house prices to fall materially. In part for that reason I expect the government and the Bank of England to continue with their very low interest rate policy.’
Martin Wade, Director, Your Mortgage Decisions Prediction for house prices in 2012? -5 to 10%
'I believe we will see great variances in house price movement across the UK with the south and in particular London and the home counties faring considerably better than northern England, Wales and Scotland. It would not surprise me to see some gains as significant as 5% to 10% within a commutable distance to London, as has been the case this year for pockets of desirable housing served well by schools, transport links and good community facilities such as leisure and retail. Other areas are likely to see a more benign outlook with a neutral to 5 to 10% decline in the areas of highest unemployment.'
Robert Sinclair, Director, Association of Mortgage Intermediaries Prediction for house prices in 2012?
'2012 will be another challenging year on house prices, where we will continue to see significant regional variations. Overall prices will reflect consumers' mood on the wider economy. The next six months are liable to see reduced demand and a fall in prices caused by the excess of sellers over buyers. Stock at estate agents is increasing. However, as we move into next spring we expect a seasonal upturn that will leave national prices similar to now on a full 12 month cycle. For the latest updates on the stock market, visit Stock Market Today For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today
No comments:
Post a Comment