Friday, December 16, 2011

Indian stock market forecast december 19 2011

Indian stock market forecast december 19 2011 : Indian markets are in the midst of a selloff, with the benchmark indices plunging 2.5 per cent in a sharp down move. At 1510 hours, the Sensex was down 387 points to 15,449 while the broader Nifty index traded 111 points lower at 4,634.

The Nifty has now made a new 52-week low, breaking the previous low of 4639 made on 24 November. The Sensex was down over 600 points from the day’s highest points (16,068) while the Nifty shed over 170 points from the day's high of 4,818.

What the RBI did was more or less in line with market expectations. Although a section of the markets and India Inc. wanted a CRR cut, lack of announcement on the same could not have possibly triggered the afternoon crash. The rupee too remained resilient in the face RBI measures to check speculation. Global markets were also supportive. So, the unexpected selling in the afternoon could be more technical in nature. With the Nifty breaching key technical barrier of 4,700, there could be further downside.

The selling may abate in case of some firm policy action from the Centre or due to stability in external markets. Further recovery in the rupee might also act as a catalyst. With few days left in December, attention may soon shift to next year. Corporate earnings will be tracked closely. The RBI`s next move will be eagerly awaited by the markets as well. In the mean time, macro-economic data both domestic and global - will continue to influence the mood.`

For the week, Sensex closed down 4.5%, while it has been a week of losses for global equities (between 1.5-2.5%), the Indian equities underperformed the global markets. For the coming week, there are no major events lined up. Focus would shift to upcoming results season.

RBI left the rates unchanged with Repo rate at 8.5%, Reverse Repo rate at 7.5%, CRR at 6% and SLR at 24%. Reading from the RBI guidance, the million dollar line was that in view of slowing economic growth, monetary policy actions are likely to reverse the policy hinting at pressing the pause button and thinking of a rate cut in upcoming quarterly review on Jan. 24, 2012. Outlook for the Nifty remains cautious and weak as it closed below 4,700 and Nifty has resistance at 4,725 and 4,790 while the support is there at 4,600 and 4,565 levels. On the sectoral front, we saw heavy offloading in capital goods, realty, banking, power and metal stocks. As rupee recovered today, we saw minor selling in IT stocks (source http://www.myiris.com ) For the latest updates on the stock market, visit Stock Market Today

Indian markets dec 19 2011, Indian markets 19/12/2011, Sensex december 2011
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