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Friday, December 2, 2011

crude oil futures prices forecast 2012- 2013

crude oil futures prices forecast 2012- 2013 : Brent oil futures open today’s trading session near $110 a barrel and oil prices for the European oil contract look set to remain over the $100 for the whole of 2012, according to the latest forecast from one of the world’s biggest energy trading companies.

Latest Brent Oil Price
In London, Brent crude oil futures for January 2012 delivery was trading at $109.96 a barrel, 07.55 GMT this morning on the ICE Futures Exchange. ICE Brent crude oil futures closed Thursday’s trading session at $108.92 a barrel, or 1.5 percent lower on the day.

Brent Oil Price – 2012
Marco Dunand, chief executive of Mercuria Energy Trading, said world oil supplies were tight and this would probably keep prompt prices for ICE Brent above forward barrels with the market in backwardation for the foreseeable future.

“We see $100 as a floor for Brent going into next year unless OPEC decides to change their policy and supply extra barrels to the market. We anticipate a situation where the market will remain reasonably tight for a while.” Dunand said.

Dunand predicts that a major geopolitical shock, such as a war between Iran and the west which could close the Hormuz Strait in the Middle East Gulf, would push oil prices up very sharply.

“With the situation in the Middle East, there are risks to the upside. The market has already started pricing in some sort of Iranian tension or conflict, but obviously the market would have a long way to go if there was a serious conflict.”

“If there were to be a general conflict and the Strait of Hormuz were to be closed, not something we are expecting, it wouldn’t be unrealistic to see the market to go to $130 or $150 per barrel. But I see the chance of that being reasonably low.”

Headquartered in Geneva, Switzerland, Mercuria is one of the top five energy traders with a turnover of around $75 billion, moving almost 120 million tonnes of oil, coal and gas a year.

Goldman Sachs Oil Price Forecast 2012/2013
Meanwhile, banking giant Goldman Sachs introduced its 2013 Brent oil price forecast at $130 a barrel yesterday, saying that crude oil prices will continue to rise in order to slow demand growth, even in a relatively poor economic growth environment.

Goldman Sachs introduced a 2013 WTI price forecast of $126 a barrel, saying the WTI to Brent oil price spread will likely compress further as the Seaway pipeline increases capacity to 400,000 barrels per day.

Goldman Sachs maintained its 2012 price forecast of $120 a barrel for ICE Brent oil futures and $112.50 a barrel for NYMEX WTI oil futures.

“We continue to view the crude oil market as navigating between the currently tight physical oil markets and the threat that the European debt crisis could trigger a global economic recession in the near future, which would lead to a sharp drop in oil demand.” Goldman Sachs analysts said in a note. For the latest updates on the stock market, visit Stock Market Today

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