Friday, October 7, 2011

Crude Oil forecast Fundamental Analysis outlook weekly October 10-14, 2011

Crude Oil forecast Fundamental Analysis outlook weekly October 10-14, 2011 ; Crude oil prices rose last week amid optimism and hopes over the outlook of the European debt crisis, as European central banks announced more easing measures to ease tensions in markets and support their economies. While the EIA report showed crude oil inventories fell last week by 4.7 million barrels opposite to expectations, which also provided crude oil with more bullish momentum.

Also, theU.S.jobs report showed employers added 103,000 jobs in September, well above median estimates of 60 thousand added jobs, however, unemployment remained unchanged at 9.1% in line with projections.

The week is low of major fundamentals this week which leaves the focus again on the outlook for growth and the debt crisis. The EU leaders will continue to discuss the means needed to contain the crisis especially with the meeting scheduled between Sarkozy and Merkel where positive comments on how they will help banks and Greece will be good support to the sentiment and help the upside recovery.

On the other hand, the FOMC minutes will remind investors of the ongoing downside pressures and intensified downside risks to growth although since the announcement of Operation Twist Bernanke reiterated the Federal Reserve’s commitment to support the recovery and take all necessary steps.

Therefore, once again we expect the main attention to be to the debt crisis again and the measures to be taken especially as investors will turn to the G20 summit at the end of the week ahead of the EU leaders summit early the next week which will hold the final answer to markets.

Our overall outlook for crude oil prices remains to the downside, since slowing global growth and rising fears from the EU debt crisis are likely to keep crude oil prices under pressure, especially if the data coming out next week continues to signal more economic weakness all around the globe. However, if the data signals more improvement, we should expect crude oil prices to rise, but either way we still expect to witness high volatility next week as well.

Highlights for this week that will probably affect the USD/CAD pair’s direction are:

Monday October 10:

We don’t have any fundamentals from theUnited Stateson Monday as Americans celebrate Columbus Day though markets will be open.

Tuesday October 11:

The focus on Tuesday will be on the FOMC minutes for the last meeting when the Fed announced “operation twist” and with the lack of major fundamentals investors will keep their focus on the minutes for any hints for the coming move from the Federal Reserve.

Wednesday October 12:

At 14:30 GMT, the EIA report for crude oil inventories will be released for the week ending October 07, where last week crude oil inventories decreased by 4.7 million barrels.

Thursday October 13:

TheU.S.trade figures are due at 12:30 and the trade deficit in August is expected to widen to $46.0 from $44.8 billion.

The weekly jobless claims are also due at 12:30 GMT after last week they rose to 401 thousand.

Friday October 14:

The U.S. economy will end the week with heavy data starting at 12:30 GMT with the September Retail Sales as the index is expected to rise moderately by 0.2% less autos after 0.1% gain in August and excluding gas and auto sales are also expected with 0.2% rise after 0.1%.

At 13:55 GMT theUniversityofMichiganconfidence for October is expected with a rise to 60.0 from 59.4; and finally at 14:00 GMT, Business Inventories for August are expected to hold at 0.4%.

Originally posted fxempire.com
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