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Monday, August 22, 2011

World Oil Supply and Demand forecast for 2012

World Oil Supply and Demand forecast for 2012, World oil demand forecast for 2012 : The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries cut its oil demand forecasts for 2011 and next year as the global economic recovery loses momentum.

World oil demand is forecast to grow by 1.36 mb/d in 2011, slightly lower than in the previous report, as the unsteady global economy has added risks to the forecast. In 2012, global oil demand is expected to grow at a slightly lower 1.32 mb/d. The global economic recovery has been facing challenges across the OECD, adding to the uncertainties to next year’s forecast. US gasoline demand is expected to be back in its normal growing mode; however it will remain a major factor affecting oil demand projections. The disruption in nuclear power generation in Japan could also increase oil consumption in the coming year.

OPEC, responsible for about 40 percent of world oil supply, reduced its consumption estimate for this year by 150,000 barrels a day. That means global demand will rise by 1.2 million a day, or 1.4 percent, to 88.1 million a day. Next year it will increase by 1.5 percent to 89.4 million, following a “minor downward revision,” the organization said today in its monthly market report.

OPEC’s 12 members boosted production by 400,000 barrels a day last month to an average of 30.07 million a day, according to the report. That’s nearly 1 million a day less than the average amount the group forecasts its members will need to provide during the third quarter. This “call on OPEC” is estimated at 31 million a day in this quarter and 30.74 million in the fourth.

OPEC trimmed its estimates for supplies from outside the organization this year, and kept them unchanged for 2012. Non- OPEC nations will bolster production by 600,000 barrels a day to 52.8 million, it said. That’s 50,000 a day less than predicted last month, as a result of lower projections for Canada, Norway, the U.K., Malaysia, Vietnam and Brazil. Next year non-OPEC nations will raise output by 730,000 a barrels a day to 53.57 million, according to the report.

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