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Thursday, July 14, 2011

currency exchange forecast 2012

currency exchange forecast 2012 : The Western European BI tools market grew in 2007 by 8.0% at constant currency,but this represented 17.7% growth in dollars. “Generally,2007 was stronger than expected,”said Alys Woodward,program manager for BI and Analytics in Europe at IDC. “However,currency effects flattened the growth considerably. We expect to see growth continue and a CAGR of 11.0% between 2007 and 2012.

Sterling outlook: What next for the pound?
This is because of the interest rate gap that has merged between the UK and European Union. The main European Central Bank refinancing rate is at 1.25% versus the record low 0.5% maintained for more than two years by the Bank of England. The gap is expected to widen, with the ECB making at least one more hike this year, while the BoE might not raise rates at all. Read More...

6 Month Euro Forecast
The Euro has done well through the first half of 2011, rallying to fresh multi-year highs against the US Dollar and strengthening against almost all G10 counterparts. There remain clear fundamental risks for the single currency in the second half of 2011, and we look for the Euro to fall. The major concern is whether several at-risk countries can remain stable despite clear debt crises. The European Central Bank’s next actions may prove pivotal—especially as the Euro has strengthened on robust interest rate forecasts and is at risk of losses on any significant downgrades. The number of risks to the Euro arguably outweighs those to the US Dollar, leaving us watching for further EURUSD declines. We look for the EUR/USD to end 2011 below 1.25.
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Forecast for the US dollar
The Federal Funds rate was unchanged at 0-0.25% after June’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. We now expect it to stay there for almost another year. The Fed acknowledged that the recovery is proceeding at a slower pace than expected, with labour market data noticeably weaker. June’s disappointing result of just 18k non-farm jobs added, on the heals of only 25k in May (revised down from 54k) won’t have altered the committee’s view ahead of its meeting later this month. Read More...

Pound Sterling, the Euro and US Dollar exchange rate forecast
The Pound plummeted to the lowest level in 15 months against the Euro yesterday, amid reports in the UK that showed falling consumer confidence and house prices. The UK currency weakened against all of the 16 most actively traded currencies, as traders scaled back interest rate expectations to August 2012 before the MPC considers raising rates from the record low. Read More...

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