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Monday, June 20, 2011

turkish banking sector 2011 - 2012

turkish banking sector 2011 - 2012 : January 2011 Turkish banking sector net profit down by 24% y/y / Slightly negative According to the BRSA, Turkish banking sector's net profit came in at TRY 1,559mn (down by 24.2% y/y and down by 11.5% m/m). The CAR of the sector came down to 18.4% as of January 2011 (down by 60bp m/m and down by 200bp y/y).

There are two main reasons behind the sharp y/y drop in earnings. The first one is the 9.6% y/y decrease in net interest income. Despite the huge volume growth, the monthly NIM dropped by 140bp y/y in January 2011. The second factor was the high 21.3% y/y growth in non-interest expenses. It seems that banks will have to work hard to control over the operational expenses in 2011. The implication on the banks' share prices is expected to be slightly negative.

Turkey Banking Sector Analysis to 2012
When all the main economies of the world are reeling under the stress of financial crisis, the banking industry in Turkey continued to grow in 2008 and foreign contribution also improved. The ratio of deposits and loans to GDP, and the ratio of loans to deposits are significant indicators of financial strength and intermediation level of the banking industry, and these indicators shone bright. The share of loans in banking industry assets continued to grow, according to ""Turkey Banking Sector Forecast to 2012”, a research report by RNCOS.

Nevertheless, in the upcoming period, the pace of growth in credit volume will be reliant on the development in international markets and therefore, on banks’ liquidity preferences. On domestic front, retail consumers will carry on to drive the credit disbursal and interest-based income of banks in coming years.

Regardless of high losses incurred by famous international banks due to the global turmoil, the prosperity of the Turkish banking industry improved in 2007 and the return on assets as well as on equity of the industry increased. Considering Turkey's population, the size of its economy, economic power, per capita deposit and per capita loan figures, the banking industry is still in development process and has further growth potential.

Turkey’s banking industry is financially strong to cope with mild short-term stress. Banks are better provisioned and the NPL ratio has been steadily declining. The industry has undergone a process of consolidation as a result of bank failures in 2000-01, while banking regulation and supervision have been improved greatly. The industry will continue to witness growth despite.

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