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Friday, May 13, 2011

When will rates rise and Market predictions

When will rates rise and Market predictions : The MPC ordered 'hold' at its most recent meeting (5 May). The UK bank rate has been at 0.5% since March 2009.

The chances of a rise had diminished greatly since the previous meeting. In fact, many economists are now wondering whether the first rise will now be delayed until 2012.

The change in sentiment has mainly been driven by a fall in March inflation (12 April) - from 4.4% to 4% - and after minutes from the April meeting (21 April) of the MPC confirmed members once again voted six to three in favour of holding rates at record low 0.5%.

Inflation, however, could still rise again - especially given the recent surge in oil prices - and could still hit 5% in 2011.

The Bank of England's quarterly Inflation Report was translated as being fairly hawkish (11 May) and warned of 5% inflation. That spurred markets to temporarily shift their forecast for the first rise from January to December. But it shifted back again today to January.

But the over-arching mood is that the economic recovery remains weak, making it difficult to hike the cost of borrowing: official figures suggested GDP grew by only 0.5% in the first quarter (27 April).

Attention now turns to publication of the May MPC meeting minutes, due out at 9.30am on Wednesday, 18 May.

MPC member views: Meeting minutes (20 April) showed the MPC moving no closer to a rise in April: the vote was 6 to 3 for hold - the same as in March and February. Two voted for a rise in January. Andrew Sentance, who has called for rises since the summer, voted for a 50-basis point rise to 1% for a third month.

He has continued his interest rate rise rhetoric (15 April).

Unfortunately for savers, Sentance will step down in late May to be replaced by Goldman Sachs economist Ben Broadbent, who is said to be less 'hawkish' but will probably still call for rises. Meanwhile, arch-dove Adam Posen, the MPC's biggest fan of low rates, has continued to call for more money printing. He is so convinced that inflation will fall below 1.5% next summer that he says he'll quit the committee if it's not (29 March).

Market predictions

So when will the MPC make the first move?

Bank of England

Interest rate futures (12 May) point to January 2012, pencilling in an increase from 0.50% to 0.75%. And then the next increase, to 1%, coming in the summer.

But these market predictions are very volatile. The 'first rise' forecast has fluctuated between December and January this week and a month ago it pointed to this June.

Important note: Markets, economists and other experts haven't had a great record of making the right calls in recent years: 2010 predictions | 2008 predictions . This is Money has always advocated caution with predictions, including our own! There's no guarantee that those who have made correct calls in the past will repeat them in the future source thisismoney.co.uk... For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today

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