Sunday, May 22, 2011

USD-CAD weekly outlook for May 23-27 2011

USD-CAD weekly outlook for May 23-27 2011- predictions, forecast forex : Forex Pros – The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart in choppy trade last week, extending its longest losing streak since November as crude oil, Canada’s largest export, traded close to a three-month low.

USD/CAD hit 0.9653 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since May 13; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9738 by close of trade on Friday, gaining 0.53% over the week.

The pair is likely to find support at 0.9603, the low of May 13 and short-term resistance at 0.9739, Tuesday’s high and a six-week high.

Crude oil futures for June delivery slipped 0.2% last week to USD99.49 a barrel in New York after dropping as low as USD95.02 on Tuesday. Raw materials including oil account for about half of Canada’s export revenue.

Data on Friday showing that Canadian inflation was weaker-than-expected last month and retail sales were flat in March dampened expectations for a rate increase by the Bank of Canada this month.

Statistics Canada said consumer prices rose 3.3% in April from a year earlier, less than the expected 3.4% gain forecast. Retail sales for March were unexpectedly flat as rising gasoline sales offset declines in furniture, clothing and entertainment.

Data on Thursday showing a slowdown in manufacturing growth in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region and an unexpected dip in existing home sales in April underlined the view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to tighten policy for some time to come.

Looking ahead to the coming week, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter gross domestic product will be a major focus of attention, while markets in Canada are to stay closed on Monday.

Ahead of the coming week, Forex Pros has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Monday, May 23
Markets in Canada are to remain closed for the Victoria Day holiday.

Tuesday, May 24
The U.S. is to publish government data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.

Wednesday, May 25
The U.S. is to publish official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a government report on crude oil stockpiles. This data can have a sizable impact on the Canadian dollar due to the size of Canada’s energy sector.

Thursday, May 26
The U.S. is to publish revised data on first quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. The U.S. is also to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims.

Friday, May 27
The U.S. is to round up the week with a slew of economic data, including government reports on personal income and spending and industry data on pending home sales, while the University of Michigan is to publish revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. source www.forexpros.com...
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