Forex - GBP/USD weekly outlook: May 23-27
Last week saw the pound close trading largely unchanged against the U.S. dollar, as stronger-than-expected U.K. data did little to boost expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rates this year.
GBP/USD hit 1.6304 on Friday, the pair’s highest since May 13; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6228 by close of trade, easing up just 0.12% over the week. Cable is likely to find support at 1.6105, Wednesday’s low and a six-week low and resistance at 1.6304, Friday’s high.
Official data on Tuesday showed that the annual rate of inflation in the U.K. hit a two-and-a-half-year high of 4.5% in April, more than forecasts for a 4.2% reading.
On Thursday, government data showed that British retail sales for April rose 1.1%, outstripping expectations for a rise of 0.8%, boosted by the extra holiday for the Royal Wedding and record high temperatures.
But BOE Governor Mervyn King warned that a rate hike in the near term could threaten the fragile economic recovery.
The pound came under pressure as risk appetite faltered on Friday after ratings agency Fitch downgraded Greece's credit ratings by three notches and said a “soft” restructuring of the country’s debt by European Union policy makers would be considered a default.
Meanwhile, data on Thursday showing a slowdown in manufacturing growth in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region and an unexpected dip in existing home sales in April supported the view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to tighten policy for some time to come.
Looking ahead to the coming week, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter gross domestic product will be the main focus of attention. The U.K. is also to publish revised data on first quarter GDP.
Ahead of the coming week, Forex Pros has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets. The guide skips Monday as there are no relevant events on this day.
Tuesday, May 24
The U.K. is to publish official data on public sector net borrowing, as well as an industry report on realized sales, a leading indicator of consumer spending.
The U.S. is to publish government data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.
Wednesday, May 25
The U.K. is to release revised data on first quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. The country is also to publish industry data on mortgage approvals and preliminary business investment.
The U.S. is to publish official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a government report on crude oil stockpiles.
Thursday, May 26
The U.S. is to publish revised data on first quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic growth. The U.S. is also to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims.
Friday, May 27
In the U.K., research group Gfk is to publish a report on consumer confidence, while later in the day mortgage lender Nationwide is to publish a report on house prices, a leading indicator of the housing industry's health.
The U.S. is to round up the week with a slew of economic data, including government reports on personal income and spending and industry data on pending home sales, while the University of Michigan is to publish revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations
Forex - AUD/USD weekly outlook: May 23-27
Last week saw the Australian dollar advance against its U.S. counterpart for the first time in three weeks, after the Reserve Bank of Australia said that higher interest rates may be required to contain inflation.
AUD/USD hit 1.0710 on Friday, the pair’s highest since May 13; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.0657 by close of trade, climbing 0.75% over the week.
The pair was likely to find support at 1.0594, Thursday’s low and resistance at 1.0888, the high of May 11.
The Aussie rose sharply on Tuesday after the minutes of the most recent RBA policy meeting revealed that, “higher interest rates were likely to be required at some point if inflation was to remain consistent with the medium-term target.”
Meanwhile, data on Thursday showing a slowdown in manufacturing growth in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region and an unexpected dip in existing home sales in April underlined the view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to tighten policy for some time to come.
At present, benchmark interest rates are 4.75% in Australia, compared with zero in the U.S., attracting investors to the pacific nation’s higher-yielding currency.
The Aussie climbed to a one-week high against the greenback on Friday before paring gains as market sentiment was hit by mounting concerns over the euro zone’s sovereign debt crisis.
Looking ahead to the coming week, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter GDP will be a major focus of attention, while Australia is to publish data on private capital expenditure. The guide skips Monday, as there are no relevant events on this day.
Ahead of the coming week, Forex Pros has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Tuesday, May 24
The U.S. is to publish government data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.
Wednesday, May 25
Australia is to publish two separate reports containing indexes of economic indicators designed to predict the future direction of the economy as well as official data on completed construction projects, which gives an insight into GDP data to be published the following week.
The U.S. is to publish official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a government report on crude oil stockpiles.
Thursday, May 26
Australia is to publish government data on private capital expenditure, a leading indicator of economic health.
Later in the day, the U.S. is to publish revised data on first quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. The U.S. is also to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims.
Friday, May 27
The U.S. is to round up the week with a slew of economic data, including government reports on personal income and spending and industry data on pending home sales, while the University of Michigan is to publish revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations
Forex - USD/CAD weekly outlook: May 23-27
The Canadian dollar weakened against its U.S. counterpart in choppy trade last week, extending its longest losing streak since November as crude oil, Canada’s largest export, traded close to a three-month low.
USD/CAD hit 0.9653 on Thursday, the pair’s lowest since May 13; the pair subsequently consolidated at 0.9738 by close of trade on Friday, gaining 0.53% over the week.
The pair is likely to find support at 0.9603, the low of May 13 and short-term resistance at 0.9739, Tuesday’s high and a six-week high.
Crude oil futures for June delivery slipped 0.2% last week to USD99.49 a barrel in New York after dropping as low as USD95.02 on Tuesday. Raw materials including oil account for about half of Canada’s export revenue.
Data on Friday showing that Canadian inflation was weaker-than-expected last month and retail sales were flat in March dampened expectations for a rate increase by the Bank of Canada this month.
Statistics Canada said consumer prices rose 3.3% in April from a year earlier, less than the expected 3.4% gain forecast. Retail sales for March were unexpectedly flat as rising gasoline sales offset declines in furniture, clothing and entertainment.
Meanwhile, data on Thursday showing a slowdown in manufacturing growth in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region and an unexpected dip in existing home sales in April underlined the view that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to tighten policy for some time to come.
Looking ahead to the coming week, U.S. data on durable goods and a second look at first quarter gross domestic product will be a major focus of attention, while markets in Canada are to stay closed on Monday.
Ahead of the coming week, Forex Pros has compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.
Monday, May 23
Markets in Canada are to remain closed for the Victoria Day holiday.
Tuesday, May 24
The U.S. is to publish government data on new home sales, a leading indicator of economic health.
Wednesday, May 25
The U.S. is to publish official data on durable goods orders, a leading indicator of production, as well as a government report on crude oil stockpiles. This data can have a sizable impact on the Canadian dollar due to the size of Canada’s energy sector.
Thursday, May 26
The U.S. is to publish revised data on first quarter GDP, the broadest measure of economic activity and the primary gauge of the economy's health. The U.S. is also to publish its weekly report on initial jobless claims.
Friday, May 27
The U.S. is to round up the week with a slew of economic data, including government reports on personal income and spending and industry data on pending home sales, while the University of Michigan is to publish revised data on consumer sentiment and inflation expectations. (source : www.forexpros.com ) For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today
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