Light Sweet Crude
The CL retested the $95 area yet again this week, and seems to be quite comfortable in this area. In fact, we use $95 as a symbolic floor for CL. If we trade below it on a significant daily close, we will short this market looking for more weakness. However, we believe that we will certainly see higher prices first, and a break of the $101 area could get us very bullish.
Brent
The Brent markets look like they are finding support at the $105 area, and this would be the floor for us. A break below would seriously shake the confidence of bulls, but looks unlikely at the moment. The market certainly looks like the recent weakness isn’t breaking the resolve of the buyers. On a move up over $115, we could see a push back towards $125 or so.
Crude Oil Weekly Fundamental Analysis for May 23-27, 2011
Crude oil prices fell during this past week, where crude oil prices settled below $100 a barrel amid the strong wave of pessimism that continued to weigh down on commodity markets, and forced crude oil prices to remain under pressure, as investors are worried over the outlook for global growth, with signs emerging that major economies around the world are slowing down, which weighed down on crude oil prices.
The outlook for crude oil prices remains very unclear, but the clear thing is that volatility will continue to dominate crude oil movements, but overall, crude oil prices could still drop further during this upcoming week, noting important economic reports will be released from the United States on growth, income, and spending, which could affect crude oil prices heavily.
Highlights for this week that will probably affect the Crude Oil direction are:
Tuesday 14:00,
the U.S. will release the new home sales index for the month of April, where new home sales are expected to rise by 1.7% to an annual rate of 305,000 units, compared with the prior estimate of 300,000 units, although the housing market showed further weakness in April, as the housing market remains depressed.
Wednesday 12:30,
the U.S. will release the durable goods orders for the month of April, where durable goods orders are expected to drop by 2.0%, compared with the prior rise of 2.5%, while durable goods excluding transportation are expected to rise by 0.6%, compared with the prior rise in March by 1.3%.
Wednesday 14:00,
the U.S. will release the house price index for the month of March, where house prices are expected to fall by 0.5%, compared with the prior drop of 1.6%.
Wednesday, 14:30,
The Department of Energy will release the weekly petroleum status for the week ending May 20, where the prior report showed that crude oil inventories decreased by 15,000 barrels.
Thursday 12:30,
the U.S. will release the second estimate for Gross Domestic Product index for the first quarter of 2011, where GDP is expected to show the U.S. economy expanded by 2.2%, compared with the prior estimate of 1.8%, while personal consumption is expected to rise by 2.8%, compared with the prior rise of 2.7%. The GDP price index is expected to remain unchanged at 1.9% in the first quarter, while core PCE is also expected to remain unchanged at 1.5% during the first quarter of 2011.
Thursday 12:30,
the jobless claims for the week ending May 21, will be released, where jobless claims dropped last week to 409,000, while continuing claims also fell to 3.711 million.
Friday 12:30, the income report will be released for the month of April, where personal income is expected to rise by 0.4% in April, compared with the prior rise of 0.5%, while personal spending is expected to rise by 0.4%, compared with the prior rise of 0.6%. The income report is also expected to show that core PCE rose in April by 0.2%, compared with 0.1% reported in March, while compared with a year earlier, core PCE is expected to rise by 1.0%, compared with the prior rise of 0.9%, and the PCE deflator is expected to rise by an annualized 2.1%, compared with the prior rise of 1.8%.
Friday 13:55,
the University of Michigan will release the final estimate for consumer confidence in May, where consumer confidence is expected to remain unchanged at 72.4 in line with the prior estimate.
Friday 14:00,
the U.S. will release the pending home sales index for April, where pending home sales are expected to drop by 1.0% in April, compared with the prior rise of 5.1% reported in March. For the latest updates PRESS CTR + D or visit Stock Market news Today
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