Friday, March 18, 2011

Market Outlook march 18 2011 - Libya ceasefire lifts stocks, yen falls after G7

Market Outlook march 18 2011 - Libya ceasefire lifts stocks, yen falls after G7 : Global stocks rose on Friday after a Libya ceasefire reduced tension in the region and the Group of Seven intervened to break the yen's rise, calming markets.

World stocks as measured by MSCI index .MIWD00000PUS gained 0.9 percent.

European equities pared earlier gains after China's central bank raised lenders' required reserve ratios. Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 climbed 0.5 percent.

Oil fell from earlier highs after Libya declared a cease-fire in the country to protect civilians and comply with a United Nations resolution passed overnight.

"That (Mideast unrest) quieting down and Japan quieting down will lead to buying," said Stephen Massocca, managing director at Wedbush Morgan in San Francisco.

Brent crude LCOc1 had surged above $117 a barrel on worries of escalating unrest in oil-rich countries after the United Nations approved military action to contain Libya's Muammar Gaddafi. Brent crude for May delivery slipped 16 cents, or 0.1 percent to $114.74 a barrel after the cease-fire. U.S. crude was little changed at $101.51.

The U.N. Security Council passed a resolution endorsing a no-fly zone for Libya. It authorized "all necessary measures" to protect civilians against Gaddafi's forces.
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The dollar climbed nearly 3 percent to 81.07 yen, retreating from a session high of around 81.98 yen JPY=, following the G7 announcement, which came just as the Tokyo
stock market opened.

The show of solidarity by the G7 major developed economies to support Japan through its biggest crisis since World War Two comes a day after the yen soared to a record 76.25 per dollar in chaotic trading. It is the first coordinated currency intervention by the G7 in a decade.

The G7 "is just helping sentiment, and stocks sensitive to risk will push on. But optimism is going to be guarded as there are no firm resolutions surrounding the Japanese nuclear crisis and the Middle East, and anything can happen on the weekend," said Giles Watts, head of equities at City Index in London.

The Dow Jones industrial average .DJI gained 110.72 points, or 0.94 percent, to 11,885.31. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index .SPX was up 9.67 points, or 0.76 percent, at 1,283.39 and the Nasdaq Composite Index .IXIC was up 10.78 points, or 0.41 percent, at 2,646.82.

Financial stocks rose after The Wall Street Journal reported the largest U.S. banks will be notified Friday whether they passed a second round of stress tests, allowing
them to raise their dividends. JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) rose 1.4 percent to $45.17.

Industrial shares also rose, helped by renewed bets they could benefit in Japan's rebuilding effort. General Electric Co (GE.N) rose 1.4 percent to $19.48, while Caterpillar (CAT.N) rose 1.9 percent to $105.10.

Japan's Nikkei share index .N225 climbed 2.7 percent, recouping some of the week's losses as Japan reeled from the aftermath of an earthquake, tsunami and nuclear power plant crisis. [ID:nTOPNOW4]

The euro EURJPY=R rose 3.5 percent to 114.61 yen, after climbing to a session high of 115.50 yen earlier from around 114.70. Traders noted the scale of intervention was so far atame effort to stem the yen's surge.

The euro EUR= rose 0.8 percent against the dollar to $1.4137, after earlier reaching a 4-1/2 month high of $1.4052.

Some market observers said even massive official selling might not restrain the yen for long, pointing to Japan's last intervention in September 2010 when it sold a huge 2.1 trillion yen, or around $25 billion worth, but only managed to push the dollar up to 85.77 yen from 82.85 yen.

"It would need to be concerted and aggressive ... and even then I'm skeptical," said Richard Wiltshire, a currency trader at ETX Capital in London.

A New York Federal Reserve spokesman said the U.S. central bank had joined the G7 in intervening to weaken the yen.

Demand for the safety of government debt eased. The drop of 5/32 in the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note's price pushed itse yield up 0.02 percentage point to 3.28 percent.

Gold XAU= rose $17.25 to $1,419.60 an ounce, but was off a record around $1,444 hit last week.
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